# Will Instacart App Downloads for August 2026 be above 100

> Closed. Last odds frozen 10 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cartapp
Updated: 2026-09-11T19:20:52.836Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-10-08

## Headline

- Leader: Above 116 at 69%
- Runner-up: Above 120 at 64%
- Outcomes: 9 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $358

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 116 | 69¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-instacart-app-downloads-for-september-2026-be-kalshi-kxcartapp-26oct08-t116 |
| Above 120 | 64¢ | −3pp | $251 | kalshi | /markets/will-instacart-app-downloads-for-september-2026-be-kalshi-kxcartapp-26oct08-t120 |
| Above 122 | 52¢ | −40pp | $3 | kalshi | /markets/will-instacart-app-downloads-for-september-2026-be-kalshi-kxcartapp-26oct08-t122 |
| Above 124 | 46¢ | −3pp | $4 | kalshi | /markets/will-instacart-app-downloads-for-september-2026-be-kalshi-kxcartapp-26oct08-t124 |
| Above 126 | 44¢ | −23pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-instacart-app-downloads-for-september-2026-be-kalshi-kxcartapp-26oct08-t126 |
| Above 128 | 41¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-instacart-app-downloads-for-september-2026-be-kalshi-kxcartapp-26oct08-t128 |
| Above 130 | 34¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-instacart-app-downloads-for-september-2026-be-kalshi-kxcartapp-26oct08-t130 |
| Above 132 | 26¢ | +3pp | $100 | kalshi | /markets/will-instacart-app-downloads-for-september-2026-be-kalshi-kxcartapp-26oct08-t132 |
| Above 136 | 18¢ | −6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-instacart-app-downloads-for-september-2026-be-kalshi-kxcartapp-26oct08-t136 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 116 | Above 120 | Above 122 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | 65 | 55 | 56 |
| 2026-09-09 | 69 | 68 | 52 |
| 2026-09-10 | — | 65 | 12 |

_9 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This question asks whether Instacart will record more than 100 app downloads during August 2026. The 96% probability reflects strong confidence that this threshold will be exceeded, with traders pricing in a high likelihood based on Instacart's established market position and typical user behavior patterns. The probability gradient across contracts—dropping from 96% (above 100) to 77% (above 110) to 38% (above 125)—suggests traders expect downloads in the 110–120 range. Key drivers include seasonal download trends, competitive pressures from similar services, and marketing activity. The primary uncertainty will resolve when August 2026 data closes and download figures become public, typically in early September. Factors that could shift these odds include major app store algorithm changes, significant service disruptions, or unexpected competitive or regulatory developments during the month.

### Key factors

- Instacart's historical download volumes in comparable months; if July 2026 or August 2025 data showed consistently lower numbers, the current 96% would be harder to justify
- Seasonal patterns in grocery delivery app adoption; summer months may see different download behavior than baseline periods
- Competitor activity and market share shifts; launches or major campaigns from DoorDash, Amazon Fresh, or other delivery platforms could affect Instacart's relative appeal
- App store ranking and algorithmic visibility; placement changes in iOS and Android stores directly influence discovery and download volume
- Any operational disruptions, outages, or negative press during August 2026 that could suppress new user acquisition or encourage uninstalls

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cartapp
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=cartapp

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.