# Will CAVA Group Inc. report Above 455 cava restaurants in Q1 2026

> Above 470 leads at 92%, runner-up 90% across 13 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 52 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cava
Updated: 2026-06-26T12:20:49.353Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-09-10

## Headline

- Leader: Above 470 at 92%
- Runner-up: Above 3% at 90%
- Outcomes: 13 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (13 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0
- Resolved: Above 455

## Bound contracts (13)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 470 | 92¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cava-group-inc-report-above-470-cava-restaura-kalshi-kxcava-26augrest-470 |
| Above 3% | 90¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cava-group-inc-report-above-3-same-restaurant-kalshi-kxcava-26augcomp-3.0 |
| Above 4.5% | 86¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cava-group-inc-report-above-45-same-restauran-kalshi-kxcava-26augcomp-4.5 |
| Above 6% | 78¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cava-group-inc-report-above-6-same-restaurant-kalshi-kxcava-26augcomp-6.0 |
| Above 475 | 67¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cava-group-inc-report-above-475-cava-restaura-kalshi-kxcava-26augrest-475 |
| Above 7.5% | 63¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cava-group-inc-report-above-75-same-restauran-kalshi-kxcava-26augcomp-7.5 |
| Above 476 | 51¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cava-group-inc-report-above-476-cava-restaura-kalshi-kxcava-26augrest-476 |
| Above 9% | 39¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cava-group-inc-report-above-9-same-restaurant-kalshi-kxcava-26augcomp-9.0 |
| Above 10.5% | 25¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cava-group-inc-report-above-105-same-restaura-kalshi-kxcava-26augcomp-10.5 |
| Above 485 | 16¢ | +15pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cava-group-inc-report-above-485-cava-restaura-kalshi-kxcava-26augrest-485 |
| Above 490 | 7¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cava-group-inc-report-above-490-cava-restaura-kalshi-kxcava-26augrest-490 |
| Above 479 | 5¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cava-group-inc-report-above-479-cava-restaura-kalshi-kxcava-26augrest-479 |
| Above 480 | 4¢ | −9pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cava-group-inc-report-above-480-cava-restaura-kalshi-kxcava-26augrest-480 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 470 | Above 3% | Above 4.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 95 | — | — |
| 2026-05-28 | — | 62 | 46 |
| 2026-06-11 | — | — | 87 |
| 2026-06-13 | — | 89 | — |
| 2026-06-15 | 73 | — | — |
| 2026-06-18 | 94 | 90 | 86 |
| 2026-06-26 | 92 | 90 | 86 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-21 · Above 479 −31pp 61→30¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · Above 479 −25pp 30→5¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Above 485 +15pp 1→16¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · Above 480 −11pp 29→18¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-20 · Above 476 +9pp 51→60¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract resolves based on whether CAVA Group Inc. will operate more than 455 restaurant locations when reporting Q1 2026 financial results, currently priced at 63% probability. CAVA has maintained steady expansion as a fast-casual Mediterranean restaurant chain. The outcome depends primarily on the company's actual unit growth rate over the preceding quarters and any changes to expansion plans or closures. Q1 2026 earnings report, expected in late April or early May 2026, will provide the definitive restaurant count and resolve this contract. Historical growth trends, publicly announced expansion targets, and actual new openings versus planned openings will determine if the threshold is exceeded or missed.

### Key factors

- CAVA's historical quarterly unit growth rate and whether recent pace has accelerated, decelerated, or remained consistent
- Any public announcements from CAVA management regarding expansion plans, guidance revisions, or store closure decisions in 2025-2026
- Restaurant count as of Q4 2025 earnings report relative to the 455-unit threshold and runway needed
- Capital allocation priorities and available financing for expansion during the relevant period
- Comparable restaurant chain expansion rates and broader QSR market conditions affecting new unit economics

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cava
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=cava

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.