# Will Cava Monthly Foot Traffic for August 2026 be above 105

> Above 96 leads at 92%, runner-up 85% across 12 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cavaft
Updated: 2026-08-24T13:20:49.670Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-09-07

## Headline

- Leader: Above 96 at 92%
- Runner-up: Above 97 at 85%
- Outcomes: 12 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (12 contracts)
- 24h volume: $461

## Bound contracts (12)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 96 | 92¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cava-monthly-foot-traffic-for-august-2026-be-kalshi-kxcavaft-26sep07-t96 |
| Above 97 | 85¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cava-monthly-foot-traffic-for-august-2026-be-kalshi-kxcavaft-26sep07-t97 |
| Above 98 | 78¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cava-monthly-foot-traffic-for-august-2026-be-kalshi-kxcavaft-26sep07-t98 |
| Above 99 | 72¢ | ±0 | $30 | kalshi | /markets/will-cava-monthly-foot-traffic-for-august-2026-be-kalshi-kxcavaft-26sep07-t99 |
| Above 100 | 62¢ | +1pp | $7 | kalshi | /markets/will-cava-monthly-foot-traffic-for-august-2026-be-kalshi-kxcavaft-26sep07-t100 |
| Above 101 | 46¢ | −32pp | $205 | kalshi | /markets/will-cava-monthly-foot-traffic-for-august-2026-be-kalshi-kxcavaft-26sep07-t101 |
| Above 102 | 21¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cava-monthly-foot-traffic-for-august-2026-be-kalshi-kxcavaft-26sep07-t102 |
| Above 103 | 8¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cava-monthly-foot-traffic-for-august-2026-be-kalshi-kxcavaft-26sep07-t103 |
| Above 104 | 5¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cava-monthly-foot-traffic-for-august-2026-be-kalshi-kxcavaft-26sep07-t104 |
| Above 105 | 4¢ | +1pp | $4 | kalshi | /markets/will-cava-monthly-foot-traffic-for-august-2026-be-kalshi-kxcavaft-26sep07-t105 |
| Above 106 | 4¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cava-monthly-foot-traffic-for-august-2026-be-kalshi-kxcavaft-26sep07-t106 |
| Above 107 | 3¢ | +1pp | $215 | kalshi | /markets/will-cava-monthly-foot-traffic-for-august-2026-be-kalshi-kxcavaft-26sep07-t107 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 96 | Above 97 | Above 98 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | 59 | 58 | 57 |
| 2026-08-10 | 76 | 69 | 61 |
| 2026-08-17 | 80 | 75 | 34 |
| 2026-08-23 | 89 | 82 | 75 |

_18 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-18 · Above 97 −74pp 75→1¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-19 · Above 97 +40pp 1→41¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-23 · Above 101 −32pp 49→17¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-20 · Above 97 +32pp 41→73¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-17 · Above 98 −29pp 63→34¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Cava's monthly foot traffic will exceed 105 visits in August 2026, currently priced at 51% likelihood. The contract structure reveals a gradual confidence decline as thresholds increase: traffic above 100 trades at 52%, but above 104 drops to just 16%, suggesting the market expects results clustered in the high-90s to low-100s range. The main driver is historical foot-traffic patterns and seasonal trends, with August typically showing summer traffic dynamics. Resolution will depend on actual foot-traffic data released post-month, likely reported in early September. Current thin trading volume ($0 in the past 24 hours across these contracts) suggests limited recent conviction, and no major announced promotions or operational changes appear to be pricing in dramatic shifts. The narrow gap between 51% and 49% for the leading outcome indicates meaningful uncertainty about whether August will slightly exceed or fall just short of the 105 threshold.

### Key factors

- Historical August foot-traffic baseline for Cava relative to the 105-unit threshold; seasonal patterns and year-over-year growth rates
- Promotional calendar and staffing levels scheduled for August 2026; any announced marketing initiatives or temporary store closures
- Q3 2026 same-store sales trends and comparable location traffic data; whether recent periods show acceleration or deceleration
- Definition and measurement methodology for 'foot traffic' used in official reporting; potential ambiguity in how visits are counted or aggregated
- Post-August data release timing and source credibility; when and how Cava reports August foot-traffic figures to the market

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cavaft
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=cavaft

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.