# Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 0bps at their April 2026 meeting

> Maintains rate leads at 83%, runner-up 83% across 10 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 23 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cbdecisioncanada
Updated: 2026-06-29T02:20:51.072Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-09

## Headline

- Leader: Maintains rate at 83%
- Runner-up: Maintains rate at 83%
- Outcomes: 10 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (10 contracts)
- 24h volume: $36

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maintains rate | 83¢ | +1pp | $36 | kalshi | /markets/will-bank-of-canada-hike-rates-by-0bps-at-their-ju-kalshi-kxcbdecisioncanada-26jul-h0 |
| Maintains rate | 83¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bank-of-canada-hike-rates-by-0bps-at-their-se-kalshi-kxcbdecisioncanada-26sep-h0 |
| Maintains rate | 79¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bank-of-canada-hike-rates-by-0bps-at-their-oc-kalshi-kxcbdecisioncanada-26oct-h0 |
| Hike >25bps | 49¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bank-of-canada-hike-rates-by-25bps-at-their-j-kalshi-kxcbdecisioncanada-26jul-h26 |
| Cut 25bps | 24¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bank-of-canada-cut-rates-by-25bps-at-their-de-kalshi-kxcbdecisioncanada-26dec-c25 |
| Hike 25bps | 8¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bank-of-canada-hike-rates-by-25bps-at-their-o-kalshi-kxcbdecisioncanada-26oct-h25 |
| Maintains rate | 5¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bank-of-canada-hike-rates-by-0bps-at-their-de-kalshi-kxcbdecisioncanada-26dec-h0 |
| Hike 25bps | 5¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bank-of-canada-hike-rates-by-25bps-at-their-j-kalshi-kxcbdecisioncanada-26jul-h25 |
| Cut 25bps | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bank-of-canada-cut-rates-by-25bps-at-their-oc-kalshi-kxcbdecisioncanada-26oct-c25 |
| Hike 25bps | 3¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bank-of-canada-hike-rates-by-25bps-at-their-s-kalshi-kxcbdecisioncanada-26sep-h25 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Maintains rate | Maintains rate | Maintains rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | 10 | 4 | 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | 87 | — | 38 |
| 2026-06-16 | 87 | 83 | 42 |
| 2026-06-21 | 90 | — | — |
| 2026-06-22 | — | — | 59 |
| 2026-06-24 | 88 | 83 | 65 |
| 2026-06-28 | 81 | 83 | 77 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-27 · Maintains rate −13pp 93→80¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Cut 25bps −11pp 16→5¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · Maintains rate +6pp 53→59¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-26 · Maintains rate +6pp 65→71¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-26 · Maintains rate +5pp 88→93¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract tracks whether the Bank of Canada will hold its policy rate unchanged at their April 2026 meeting. The 39% probability reflects market expectation that a rate change is more likely than no change. The current level is driven by two main factors: recent inflation data and the broader direction of Canadian monetary policy relative to the Federal Reserve. The April meeting itself will resolve this contract when the Bank of Canada announces its decision and accompanying statement on rates. Markets currently price similar contracts for June and beyond at much higher probabilities (92%), suggesting traders expect rate stability later this year but see greater uncertainty for the April decision specifically.

### Key factors

- April 2026 BoC meeting probability of 39% for no change is substantially lower than June 2026 market pricing at 92%, indicating current market consensus expects action in April
- Related Federal Reserve contracts show 94% pricing for 0bps in June and 91% in July, suggesting North American central banks face different near-term pressures
- The steep decline in probability from April (39%) to June (92%) to December (3%) indicates markets expect rate cuts beginning mid-year, not a frozen policy rate
- Current pricing reflects available inflation data and economic conditions as of early May 2026; any significant Canadian economic data release before the April meeting would shift probabilities
- The contract resolves upon the Bank of Canada's official rate announcement and decision statement at their scheduled April 2026 meeting

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cbdecisioncanada
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=cbdecisioncanada

## License

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