# Will the Bank of England Cut 1-25bps at the June Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee meeting

> Maintain current rate leads at 61%, runner-up 29% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 7 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cbdecisionengland
Updated: 2026-05-03T19:35:53.205Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-18

## Headline

- Leader: Maintain current rate at 61%
- Runner-up: Hike 1-25bps at 29%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $310

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maintain current rate | 61¢ | −1pp | $182 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-bank-of-england-maintain-current-rate-at-kalshi-kxcbdecisionengland-26jun18-hold |
| Hike 1-25bps | 29¢ | −1pp | $92 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-bank-of-england-hike-1-25bps-at-the-june-kalshi-kxcbdecisionengland-26jun18-h25 |
| Cut more than 25bps | 3¢ | — | $12 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-bank-of-england-cut-more-than-25bps-at-th-kalshi-kxcbdecisionengland-26jun18-c25p |
| Cut 1-25bps | 3¢ | — | $12 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-bank-of-england-cut-1-25bps-at-the-june-b-kalshi-kxcbdecisionengland-26jun18-c25 |
| Hike more than 25bps | 3¢ | — | $12 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-bank-of-england-hike-more-than-25bps-at-t-kalshi-kxcbdecisionengland-26jun18-h25p |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Maintain current rate | Hike 1-25bps | Cut more than 25bps |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 37 | 16 | 8 |
| 2026-05-01 | 62 | 25 | — |
| 2026-05-02 | 61 | 30 | — |
| 2026-05-03 | — | 29 | — |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-01 · Maintain current rate +25pp 37→62¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · Hike 1-25bps +9pp 16→25¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Hike 1-25bps +5pp 25→30¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This reflects traders' assessment of roughly a 1-in-4 chance that the Bank of England will lower its base rate by 1-25 basis points when the Monetary Policy Committee meets in June 2026. The probability sits well below expectations for a rate hold (61%), suggesting markets view a cut as unlikely in the near term. The outcome depends primarily on inflation data, employment figures, and economic growth readings between now and the meeting. Related BoE decisions and guidance released in the coming weeks will clarify the central bank's near-term direction. The June MPC meeting itself—scheduled for June 17-18, 2026—serves as the resolution event, though market expectations typically narrow significantly once forward guidance is issued by BoE officials.

### Key factors

- Current BoE base rate level and recent inflation print relative to the 2% target
- UK employment data and wage growth trends published before the June meeting
- Market pricing for BoE rate expectations as reflected in overnight index swaps and other derivatives
- Communications from BoE officials regarding economic conditions and policy stance in May and early June
- Global central bank actions (ECB, Federal Reserve) and their potential influence on sterling and UK economic outlook

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cbdecisionengland
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=cbdecisionengland

## License

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