# Will the Bank of Korea Maintain current rate at the May Bank of Korea Monetary Policy Board meeting

> Hike 1-25bps leads at 89%, runner-up 8% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 15 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cbdecisionkorea
Updated: 2026-06-26T10:20:49.251Z
Category: economy
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-16

## Headline

- Leader: Hike 1-25bps at 89%
- Runner-up: Maintain current rate at 8%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $588

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hike 1-25bps | 89¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-bank-of-korea-hike-1-25bps-at-the-july-ba-kalshi-kxcbdecisionkorea-26jul15-h25 |
| Maintain current rate | 8¢ | −5pp | $588 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-bank-of-korea-maintain-current-rate-at-th-kalshi-kxcbdecisionkorea-26jul15-hold |
| Cut 1-25bps | 5¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-bank-of-korea-cut-1-25bps-at-the-july-ban-kalshi-kxcbdecisionkorea-26jul15-c25 |
| Hike more than 25bps | 3¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-bank-of-korea-hike-more-than-25bps-at-the-kalshi-kxcbdecisionkorea-26jul15-h25p |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Hike 1-25bps | Maintain current rate | Cut 1-25bps |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 31 | 29 | 5 |
| 2026-06-12 | 61 | 28 | — |
| 2026-06-13 | 66 | 26 | 3 |
| 2026-06-14 | 67 | 23 | 2 |
| 2026-06-17 | 66 | 23 | 5 |
| 2026-06-19 | 76 | 19 | — |
| 2026-06-24 | 86 | 8 | — |
| 2026-06-26 | 88 | — | — |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-24 · Maintain current rate −5pp 13→8¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Hike 1-25bps +5pp 81→86¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · Maintain current rate −4pp 17→13¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · Hike 1-25bps +3pp 78→81¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market is pricing a 30% chance that South Korea's central bank will keep its policy rate unchanged at its May monetary policy meeting. The Bank of Korea faces competing pressures: inflation data and economic growth considerations typically drive rate decisions, while global monetary trends—particularly signals from the Federal Reserve—influence expectations. The May meeting outcome will depend on recent inflation readings, employment conditions, and whether the BOK views current rates as appropriately calibrated to support economic activity. Once the Bank of Korea announces its decision, this market resolves with certainty.

### Key factors

- Recent inflation data in South Korea and its trajectory relative to the BOK's target range
- Global central bank actions and signals, especially from the Federal Reserve regarding its own rate path
- South Korea's economic growth rate and employment figures released ahead of the May meeting
- Market pricing of the decision in won-denominated assets and forward rate expectations
- The BOK's recent communications and guidance about future policy direction

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cbdecisionkorea
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=cbdecisionkorea

## License

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