# Will the Bank of Mexico Cut more than 50bps at the May Bank of Mexico Governing Board meeting

> Closed. Last odds frozen 61 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cbdecisionmexico
Updated: 2026-06-25T13:20:52.286Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-06-25

## Headline

- Probability: 97% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $872

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maintain current rate | 97¢ | — | $872 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-bank-of-mexico-maintain-current-rate-at-t-kalshi-kxcbdecisionmexico-26jun25-hold |

## Analysis

This probability measures whether Mexico's central bank will cut its benchmark interest rate by more than 50 basis points at its May 2026 monetary policy meeting. At 19%, the market indicates this outcome is unlikely. The low probability reflects that larger rate cuts are typically reserved for economic emergencies or crisis conditions. The market appears to be pricing in either a smaller cut (25 basis points, currently at 82¢) or rate maintenance (6¢). The main catalyst is the Bank of Mexico's actual decision at the May meeting, which will depend on Mexico's inflation trajectory, economic growth data, peso strength, and Federal Reserve policy signals. Any new inflation data, currency volatility, or central bank communications before the meeting could shift expectations significantly.

### Key factors

- The 25 basis point cut contract is trading at 82¢, suggesting markets expect either a 25bp cut or no cut rather than 50bp+
- Contemporaneous Fed policy signals matter significantly—tighter US policy would constrain Mexico's room to cut aggressively
- Recent inflation readings and peso depreciation trends would indicate whether emergency-level 50bp+ cuts are justified
- The Bank of Mexico's pre-meeting communications and recent statement language provide signal of their policy direction
- Economic growth data and credit conditions in Mexico between now and the May meeting could shift cut probability upward or downward

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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