# Will the South African Reserve Bank Hike 1-25bps at the Monetary Policy Committee meeting

> Hike 1-25bps leads at 47%, runner-up 36% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cbdsa
Updated: 2026-06-26T11:20:50.465Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-23

## Headline

- Leader: Hike 1-25bps at 47%
- Runner-up: Maintain current rate at 36%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $17

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hike 1-25bps | 47¢ | +1pp | $17 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-south-african-reserve-bank-hike-1-25bps-a-kalshi-kxcbdsa-26jul23-h25 |
| Maintain current rate | 36¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-south-african-reserve-bank-maintain-curre-kalshi-kxcbdsa-26jul23-hold |
| Hike more than 25bps | 9¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-south-african-reserve-bank-hike-more-than-kalshi-kxcbdsa-26jul23-h25p |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Hike 1-25bps | Maintain current rate | Hike more than 25bps |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-02 | 41 | 23 | 14 |
| 2026-06-11 | 56 | — | — |
| 2026-06-13 | — | 24 | — |
| 2026-06-14 | — | — | 11 |
| 2026-06-15 | 55 | 27 | 10 |
| 2026-06-17 | 49 | 32 | 10 |
| 2026-06-18 | 50 | 32 | — |
| 2026-06-19 | — | 32 | — |
| 2026-06-24 | 49 | 34 | 9 |
| 2026-06-25 | 46 | 35 | — |
| 2026-06-26 | 47 | — | — |

_18 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-25 · Hike 1-25bps −3pp 49→46¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Markets currently price a 56% chance that South Africa's Reserve Bank will raise interest rates by 1–25 basis points at its next Monetary Policy Committee meeting, with smaller probabilities assigned to maintaining rates (26%) or hiking more than 25 basis points (12%). The relatively high probability of a modest hike reflects ongoing inflation pressures and the central bank's recent policy trajectory, though participants assign meaningful weight to the possibility of a hold. Key drivers include recent consumer price index readings, the rand's exchange rate stability, global rate expectations, and forward guidance from Reserve Bank officials. The MPC meeting date will serve as the primary catalyst that resolves this uncertainty, with the decision announcement triggering settlement across all three outcome contracts.

### Key factors

- Recent South African inflation data relative to the Reserve Bank's 3–6% target band will directly inform expectations about rate-setting urgency
- The rand's USD exchange rate and capital flow patterns affect currency stability considerations in monetary policy decisions
- Global central bank rate cycles, particularly Federal Reserve policy, influence South Africa's rate environment and carry-trade dynamics
- Reserve Bank officials' public statements and forward guidance issued before the meeting typically shift probabilities among the three outcomes
- The specific meeting date and time are known in advance, making this a high-information-content event with binary resolution

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cbdsa
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=cbdsa

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.