# Will the Bank of Canada raise its target for the overnight rate before 2027

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 53% across 8 contracts — refreshed 51 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cbratehike
Updated: 2026-06-26T10:20:49.416Z
Category: economy
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 53% (liquidity-weighted across 8 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $262

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Federal Reserve | 60¢ | −3pp | $110 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-federal-reserve-raise-the-target-range-fo-kalshi-kxcbratehike-27-fed |
| Norges Bank | 71¢ | +5pp | $100 | kalshi | /markets/will-norges-bank-raise-its-policy-rate-before-2027-kalshi-kxcbratehike-27-nor |
| Reserve Bank of Australia | 60¢ | −2pp | $25 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-reserve-bank-of-australia-raise-its-cash-kalshi-kxcbratehike-27-rba |
| Bank of Canada | 44¢ | −3pp | $16 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-bank-of-canada-raise-its-target-for-the-o-kalshi-kxcbratehike-27-boc |
| Riksbank | 48¢ | +1pp | $11 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-riksbank-raise-its-policy-rate-before-202-kalshi-kxcbratehike-27-rik |
| Bank of England | 36¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-bank-of-england-raise-the-bank-rate-befor-kalshi-kxcbratehike-27-boe |
| Reserve Bank of New Zealand | 92¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-reserve-bank-of-new-zealand-raise-the-off-kalshi-kxcbratehike-27-rbn |
| Swiss National Bank | 15¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-swiss-national-bank-raise-the-snb-policy-kalshi-kxcbratehike-27-snb |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 65 |
| 2026-06-12 | 56 |
| 2026-06-19 | 48 |
| 2026-06-26 | 32 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-19 · US Federal Reserve +6pp 57→63¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Norges Bank +5pp 71→76¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · US Federal Reserve −3pp 63→60¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · US Federal Reserve +3pp 60→63¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · US Federal Reserve −3pp 63→60¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectation that the Bank of Canada will not raise its overnight rate target between now and the end of 2026. At 3%, the market is pricing in a very low likelihood of a rate hike in this timeframe. The current level reflects the Bank of Canada's recent policy stance and economic conditions in Canada. Markets would reassess this probability based on changes in Canadian inflation data, labor market strength, or shifts in the central bank's forward guidance. The next scheduled Bank of Canada rate decision and monetary policy update will be a key catalyst for adjusting expectations, as any hawkish signals or economic data surprises could significantly alter the probability.

### Key factors

- Bank of Canada's current policy rate level and stated forward guidance as of May 2026
- Canadian inflation data relative to the 2% target and trend direction over the coming months
- Canadian employment and labor market indicators that might prompt monetary tightening
- Comparative monetary policy stance of other central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve, which influences capital flows and exchange rates
- Scheduled Bank of Canada policy announcements and economic projections between now and December 2026

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cbratehike
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=cbratehike

## License

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