# Will Carnival Corporation report Above 97 million available lower berth days in 2026

> Above 97.1 million leads at 92%, runner-up 91% across 9 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 34 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ccla
Updated: 2026-06-29T03:20:50.875Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2028-03-31

## Headline

- Leader: Above 97.1 million at 92%
- Runner-up: Above 97.2 million at 91%
- Outcomes: 9 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 97.1 million | 92¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-carnival-corporation-report-above-971-million-kalshi-kxccla-28janalbd-97100000.0 |
| Above 97.2 million | 91¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-carnival-corporation-report-above-972-million-kalshi-kxccla-28janalbd-97200000.0 |
| Above 97.3 million | 79¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-carnival-corporation-report-above-973-million-kalshi-kxccla-28janalbd-97300000.0 |
| Above 97.4 million | 20¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-carnival-corporation-report-above-974-million-kalshi-kxccla-28janalbd-97400000.0 |
| Above 97.5 million | 12¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-carnival-corporation-report-above-975-million-kalshi-kxccla-28janalbd-97500000.0 |
| Above 97.6 million | 9¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-carnival-corporation-report-above-976-million-kalshi-kxccla-28janalbd-97600000.0 |
| Above 97.7 million | 6¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-carnival-corporation-report-above-977-million-kalshi-kxccla-28janalbd-97700000.0 |
| Above 97.8 million | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-carnival-corporation-report-above-978-million-kalshi-kxccla-28janalbd-97800000.0 |
| Above 98.2 million | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-carnival-corporation-report-above-982-million-kalshi-kxccla-28janalbd-98200000.0 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 97.1 million | Above 97.2 million | Above 97.3 million |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-09 | 89 | 84 | 73 |
| 2026-06-15 | — | 92 | 77 |
| 2026-06-16 | 96 | — | 76 |
| 2026-06-20 | 94 | 91 | 77 |
| 2026-06-22 | 93 | — | 80 |
| 2026-06-25 | 92 | — | — |
| 2026-06-28 | — | — | 79 |

_18 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-22 · Above 97.3 million +3pp 77→80¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects market confidence that Carnival Corporation will report at least 97.1 million available lower berth days in 2026. Available berth capacity is a key metric for cruise operators, directly tied to fleet size, deployment schedules, and operational availability. The 93% probability suggests strong market expectation the company will meet or exceed this threshold. The assessment hinges on whether Carnival maintains expected fleet capacity throughout the year—including any ship deployments, dry-dock schedules, or unexpected outages—and whether management's guidance holds when 2026 full-year results are released. Contract pricing shows declining confidence at higher thresholds (74% for 97.3M, 43% for 97.4M), indicating uncertainty about capacity reaching the upper end. Resolution depends on Carnival's audited financial reporting disclosing actual berth-day figures, likely in early 2027.

### Key factors

- Carnival's current fleet size and any scheduled ship additions or retirements during 2026
- Planned dry-dock maintenance schedules and their impact on available capacity days
- Management guidance issued in recent earnings calls regarding 2026 capacity expectations
- Historical variance between Carnival's capacity projections and actual reported results
- Industry-wide demand pressures and competitive deployments that might affect utilization rates

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ccla
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ccla

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.