# CD Achuapa vs. Antigua GFC - More Markets

> Closed. Last odds frozen 1 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cd-achuapa-vs-antigua-gfc-more-markets
Updated: 2026-05-07T06:35:43.886Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Probability: 44% (liquidity-weighted across 7 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $906

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5) | 9¢ | −20pp | $384 | polymarket | /markets/kawasaki-frontale-vs-tky-verdy-more-markets-tky-ve-polymarket-0x2ae2ebd1fd8f36dee4140d1e5d50addade8319b01b9486d126f98e2e54d468c8 |
| O/U 2.5 | 64¢ | — | $254 | polymarket | /markets/beijing-guoan-fc-vs-dalian-yingbo-fc-more-markets-polymarket-0xd0a2f0efd684af9051d535ebfb688b7037a3996508900509e3edc8d229d702d4 |
| O/U 2.5 | 66¢ | +9pp | $134 | polymarket | /markets/yunnan-yukun-fc-vs-zhejiang-zhiye-fc-more-markets-polymarket-0xc6f8d09a9355a2998d4b5bd2319c8cef45cdb5936c1c335f76a41462f661d7bf |
| O/U 2.5 | 53¢ | — | $82 | polymarket | /markets/wuhan-san-zhen-fc-vs-qingdao-hainiu-fc-more-market-polymarket-0x4612ca5173a5a4fcf85507aeb04a8592bc10dda7e82aa160ccf2a48ee08c3182 |
| O/U 2.5 | 57¢ | — | $28 | polymarket | /markets/shanghai-haigang-fc-vs-shenzhen-xinpengcheng-fc-mo-polymarket-0x64562d2a13d04c9e590ca640c26a2f7cce42de7a8e7a0056e3ffc7c4226092f6 |
| O/U 3.5 | 19¢ | −20pp | $24 | polymarket | /markets/vanraure-hachinohe-fc-vs-shnan-bellmre-more-market-polymarket-0xf8c9058bc3f1c77e39ed03a30a3df9c41a377d75a71ad86ff20ff5167bf086be |
| Punjab FC (-1.5) | 39¢ | −3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/punjab-fc-vs-chennaiyin-fc-more-markets-punjab-fc-polymarket-0xea81e11adacd16d06cc52afd8e83cd1864dc58b62135f7e7931fbb9b70da2c80 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 38 |
| 2026-05-02 | 42 |
| 2026-05-03 | 33 |
| 2026-05-06 | 38 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5) −20pp 26→6¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · O/U 3.5 −20pp 40→20¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · O/U 2.5 +9pp 62→71¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Punjab FC (-1.5) −3pp 37→34¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 44% probability reflects the market's assessment that CD Achuapa will achieve a specific outcome against Antigua GFC in an upcoming match. The current level suggests meaningful uncertainty, with roughly equal backing for both the predicted outcome and alternatives. The probability is likely anchored to recent team form, head-to-head records, and home/away status. Key drivers moving this probability would include changes to team lineups due to injury or suspension, betting movement reflecting sharp money, and any shifts in match conditions or venue factors. The scheduled match date will serve as the decisive catalyst, resolving the prediction once the final result is recorded. Until then, the market will gradually adjust as new information about team readiness and tactical approaches emerges.

### Key factors

- Recent performance records of both CD Achuapa and Antigua GFC in league play directly influence probability calibration
- Team sheet changes, player injuries, or suspensions announced before match day would drive significant probability shifts
- Head-to-head historical results and home/away advantage factor into the current 44% assessment
- Betting volume and directional money flow on linked contracts indicates whether professional bettors are positioning for higher or lower outcomes
- The scheduled match date represents the binary resolution point where prediction uncertainty terminates

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cd-achuapa-vs-antigua-gfc-more-markets
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=cd-achuapa-vs-antigua-gfc-more-markets

## License

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