# CD Comerciantes Unidos vs. Club Alianza Atlético - More Markets: O/U 1.5

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 29% across 19 contracts — refreshed 11 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cd-comerciantes-unidos-vs-club-alianza-atltico-more-markets
Updated: 2026-05-03T18:50:53.230Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-17

## Headline

- Probability: 29% (liquidity-weighted across 19 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 48% / Polymarket 27% — 21pp spread
- 24h volume: $3K

## Bound contracts (19)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Otakar Esports | 6¢ | +1pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-otakar-esports-win-the-ucam-esports-club-vs-o-kalshi-kxvalorantgame-26may031400ucamota-ota |
| CA Lanús | 22¢ | — | $260 | polymarket | /markets/club-always-ready-vs-ca-lans-ca-lans-polymarket-0x4eec59e01470b72978c3eb8d56e7610e1e53db931b6fc627b1cd4f6c489c304b |
| UCAM Esports Club | 90¢ | +48pp | $251 | kalshi | /markets/will-ucam-esports-club-win-the-ucam-esports-club-v-kalshi-kxvalorantgame-26may031400ucamota-ucam |
| Club Alianza Atlético | 29¢ | — | $4 | polymarket | /markets/club-alianza-atltico-vs-amrica-de-cali-club-alianz-polymarket-0xe3443c65e561a78519c60b94a5b3b8f2ae835b958bba55e22670c1fe938bfce3 |
| América de Cali (-2.5) | 12¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/club-alianza-atltico-vs-amrica-de-cali-more-market-polymarket-0x29a631a118c304d9cd4c919646fb54d45266be29a87088c2c62e2d6a2a6fe20d |
| O/U 4.5 | 12¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/club-alianza-atltico-vs-amrica-de-cali-more-market-polymarket-0x5d229ce3aa57b88d33abcde3ae9544dec0dcc8631bb70ee879174824ce23d749 |
| América de Cali (-1.5) | 18¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/club-alianza-atltico-vs-amrica-de-cali-more-market-polymarket-0x96b339448e2986f241a96c14108ee4882a3e471bd1e64e048d17a082d584c2ac |
| América de Cali | 40¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/club-alianza-atltico-vs-amrica-de-cali-amrica-de-c-polymarket-0x434862ae5cd66453da2a5706c4b20c83a0e8ed9275af863bf21a8eee05dd9046 |
| Club Alianza Atlético (-1.5) | 11¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/club-alianza-atltico-vs-amrica-de-cali-more-market-polymarket-0x3f614366905f80462f462ae2015d4e9100b8814288110b459933faa0313d9432 |
| Club Alianza Atlético (-2.5) | 11¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/club-alianza-atltico-vs-amrica-de-cali-more-market-polymarket-0xef168aefd79cbbda7b27be016b39d5e1c4c00b34492e99b88123be7ebd64e777 |
| O/U 3.5 | 21¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/club-alianza-atltico-vs-amrica-de-cali-more-market-polymarket-0x80dc4f3600db75e1be65545303e7dcf8b6f91d734dc1daa124c381e2774aa83e |
| O/U 1.5 | 65¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/club-alianza-atltico-vs-amrica-de-cali-more-market-polymarket-0x8233314001b038e0e888d37b20465004fc6edd2db9d6d8c4e3f49e6da1e5d919 |
| Both Teams to Score | 49¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/club-alianza-atltico-vs-amrica-de-cali-more-market-polymarket-0xfab9acba8faba56c1dd787262479842e2e72ae28d4c0884ed5c92b5ea94ea061 |
| O/U 2.5 | 41¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/club-alianza-atltico-vs-amrica-de-cali-more-market-polymarket-0xf11ea279e98fe97d6a7db3b810eefbb096a00bb962710385f2c4592145284b49 |
| Draw (Club Alianza Atlético vs. América de Cali) | 30¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/club-alianza-atltico-vs-amrica-de-cali-draw-club-a-polymarket-0x3adc1594d86833eee4d93eab7d5bbcd5f451b9dbece4826dc45b124eefb75289 |
| O/U 2.5 | 41¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cd-tolima-vs-club-nacional-de-football-more-market-polymarket-0x6495f74913a1a4b90a71658c3d5837f174b49dc8078a1de854d3a922b5cf7b3b |
| National Bank of Egypt Club (-2.5) | 18¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/national-bank-of-egypt-club-vs-ismaily-sc-more-mar-polymarket-0x5d63d2f688c2e4b13f5e7bd161cd631fb069fdb4b896d52314d980484ec8892c |
| Ismaily SC (-1.5) | 13¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/national-bank-of-egypt-club-vs-ismaily-sc-more-mar-polymarket-0xaa1d2cf2e3fb0c19ffa4ed284b48d773535b110c5f32aebad7c9f6bab9136cde |
| National Bank of Egypt Club (-1.5) | 30¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/national-bank-of-egypt-club-vs-ismaily-sc-more-mar-polymarket-0x21ed5aba5907f2ff4e00718c5dd36c1a349116f982ae00f4e44f1eafb5d15e0d |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 5 |
| 2026-05-01 | 9 |
| 2026-05-02 | 15 |
| 2026-05-03 | 35 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · UCAM Esports Club +48pp 15→63¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · UCAM Esports Club +11pp 4→15¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · Otakar Esports +8pp 5→13¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates a 32% probability that the CD Comerciantes Unidos vs. Club Alianza Atlético match will produce fewer than 1.5 total goals—meaning either 0 or 1 goal scored combined. The current estimate reflects a notable disagreement between venues: Kalshi traders lean toward under 1.5 goals at 44% probability, while Polymarket traders assess it lower at 30%. The gap suggests uncertainty about team formations, recent scoring patterns, or defensive strength heading into the match. Resolution depends entirely on the match outcome itself, which will determine the final goal count. Analysts evaluating this market typically weigh historical scoring frequency between these teams, their current form and injury status, head-to-head records, and whether either side is particularly defensive-minded this season.

### Key factors

- Historical goal-per-match average for both CD Comerciantes Unidos and Club Alianza Atlético in recent fixtures
- Current league position and defensive record of both teams, indicating likelihood of low-scoring outcomes
- Recent team news including injuries, suspensions, or tactical shifts that could affect scoring patterns
- Head-to-head scoring history between these specific opponents
- Venue conditions or scheduling factors (e.g., midweek fatigue, travel distance) that may influence match intensity

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cd-comerciantes-unidos-vs-club-alianza-atltico-more-markets
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=cd-comerciantes-unidos-vs-club-alianza-atltico-more-markets

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