# CD Cuenca vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro - More Markets: CD Cuenca (-2.5)

> O/U 1.5 leads at 63%, runner-up 43% across 9 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cd-cuenca-vs-ca-san-lorenzo-de-almagro-more-markets-cd
Updated: 2026-05-03T17:35:55.004Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Leader: O/U 1.5 at 63%
- Runner-up: Both Teams to Score at 43%
- Outcomes: 9 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O/U 1.5 | 63¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cd-cuenca-vs-ca-san-lorenzo-de-almagro-more-market-polymarket-0xa69c04b9a3b1f405a96f72e12e4f36331b05c9a4a44e59782a8eb6d224561624 |
| Both Teams to Score | 43¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cd-cuenca-vs-ca-san-lorenzo-de-almagro-more-market-polymarket-0xf0d8161fb0cf05edc7279a950e469ee97ab1d0f698121d346ffa618384bfe509 |
| O/U 2.5 | 36¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cd-cuenca-vs-ca-san-lorenzo-de-almagro-more-market-polymarket-0x2dbc76c5cc0a29bc139406ee9478ca87ebe60fc29ab059b91f6bad88a7dc988c |
| O/U 3.5 | 16¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cd-cuenca-vs-ca-san-lorenzo-de-almagro-more-market-polymarket-0x8d5ad448158e42b7ff046b678b97ea6f512575fcc530502aed0167d1034dbe44 |
| CD Cuenca (-1.5) | 15¢ | +6pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cd-cuenca-vs-ca-san-lorenzo-de-almagro-more-market-polymarket-0x671eed8d16b2f048e595d650cf32638e6eb43cc94f70afcae3eb73f6e7260707 |
| CD Cuenca (-2.5) | 12¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cd-cuenca-vs-ca-san-lorenzo-de-almagro-more-market-polymarket-0x0ba8c8a71abb0ec2119bcb26712fd510596ad0b5897db11c0828c96e0f9aaa51 |
| CA San Lorenzo de Almagro (-1.5) | 11¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cd-cuenca-vs-ca-san-lorenzo-de-almagro-more-market-polymarket-0x252a645866d0f42036918666a968a7cd8695128ad1248698019d33e473779369 |
| CA San Lorenzo de Almagro (-2.5) | 11¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cd-cuenca-vs-ca-san-lorenzo-de-almagro-more-market-polymarket-0x198a70c09b493b8e0bf9d233398d4cd41ba353cd7d60301ca038a8db00dac331 |
| O/U 4.5 | 6¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cd-cuenca-vs-ca-san-lorenzo-de-almagro-more-market-polymarket-0xc4dd638c0f758186525a1818baef4867425fbdbb21903fa3909871ea5fac8eeb |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | O/U 1.5 | Both Teams to Score | O/U 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | — | 47 | 36 |
| 2026-05-03 | 63 | 45 | — |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · CD Cuenca (-1.5) +6pp 18→24¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market reflects a 27% probability that CD Cuenca will win by 3 or more goals against CA San Lorenzo de Almagro. The low probability suggests markets expect either a close result or a San Lorenzo victory. The assessment reflects relative team strength, home-field advantage (Cuenca plays in Ecuador at high altitude, a historical factor favoring local teams), and recent form. The match outcome will be determined by the final score on the scheduled game date. Key variables include whether Cuenca can leverage home conditions and whether San Lorenzo can neutralize Cuenca's attacking threat. Trading volume remains minimal across both venues ($0 in recent 24-hour activity on related contracts), indicating low market conviction and potentially wider spreads.

### Key factors

- CD Cuenca home-field advantage at high altitude in Quito (2,850m) historically favors Ecuadorian clubs in South American competition
- CA San Lorenzo de Almagro's defensive record and goal differential in recent matches relative to Cuenca's scoring output
- Current head-to-head historical matchup record and performance in Copa Sudamericana or Copa CONMEBOL contexts
- Minimal trading volume ($0 24h) on this contract suggests low liquidity and potential for wide bid-ask spreads
- Kalshi and Polymarket pricing converges at 27-28%, reducing cross-venue arbitrage opportunity

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cd-cuenca-vs-ca-san-lorenzo-de-almagro-more-markets-cd
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=cd-cuenca-vs-ca-san-lorenzo-de-almagro-more-markets-cd

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