# CD Malacateco vs. Comunicaciones FC - More Markets: CD Malacateco (-1.5)

> Closed. Last odds frozen 1 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cd-malacateco-vs-comunicaciones-fc-more-markets-cd
Updated: 2026-05-07T06:35:43.886Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Probability: 50% (liquidity-weighted across 5 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $882

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5) | 9¢ | −20pp | $384 | polymarket | /markets/kawasaki-frontale-vs-tky-verdy-more-markets-tky-ve-polymarket-0x2ae2ebd1fd8f36dee4140d1e5d50addade8319b01b9486d126f98e2e54d468c8 |
| O/U 2.5 | 64¢ | — | $254 | polymarket | /markets/beijing-guoan-fc-vs-dalian-yingbo-fc-more-markets-polymarket-0xd0a2f0efd684af9051d535ebfb688b7037a3996508900509e3edc8d229d702d4 |
| O/U 2.5 | 66¢ | +9pp | $134 | polymarket | /markets/yunnan-yukun-fc-vs-zhejiang-zhiye-fc-more-markets-polymarket-0xc6f8d09a9355a2998d4b5bd2319c8cef45cdb5936c1c335f76a41462f661d7bf |
| O/U 2.5 | 53¢ | — | $82 | polymarket | /markets/wuhan-san-zhen-fc-vs-qingdao-hainiu-fc-more-market-polymarket-0x4612ca5173a5a4fcf85507aeb04a8592bc10dda7e82aa160ccf2a48ee08c3182 |
| O/U 2.5 | 57¢ | — | $28 | polymarket | /markets/shanghai-haigang-fc-vs-shenzhen-xinpengcheng-fc-mo-polymarket-0x64562d2a13d04c9e590ca640c26a2f7cce42de7a8e7a0056e3ffc7c4226092f6 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | 45 |
| 2026-05-03 | 26 |
| 2026-05-06 | 42 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5) −20pp 26→6¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · O/U 2.5 +9pp 62→71¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability indicates a 50% chance that CD Malacateco will win by at least 2 goals against Comunicaciones FC. The current split assessment reflects uncertainty about both teams' recent form, head-to-head history, and home-field advantage. Malacateco's probability would increase if they demonstrate strong offensive output or if Comunicaciones shows defensive vulnerabilities in preceding matches. The match result will be determined when the game is played, making the actual scoreline the primary resolver of this market. Bettors typically evaluate team lineup news, injury reports, and recent performance metrics in the days leading up to kickoff.

### Key factors

- Malacateco's goal-scoring rate in their last 5 league matches compared to historical averages
- Comunicaciones FC's defensive record, specifically goals conceded in away matches this season
- Head-to-head historical performance between these teams over the past 3-5 years
- Home or away status for Malacateko and Comunicaciones in this fixture
- Whether either team is dealing with significant injuries or suspensions to key players

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cd-malacateco-vs-comunicaciones-fc-more-markets-cd
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=cd-malacateco-vs-comunicaciones-fc-more-markets-cd

## License

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