# CD Oriente Petrolero vs. CD Real Tomayapo - More Markets: CD Real Tomayapo (-1.5)

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 41% across 19 contracts — refreshed 12 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cd-oriente-petrolero-vs-cd-real-tomayapo-more-markets-cd
Updated: 2026-05-03T18:05:51.872Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-02

## Headline

- Probability: 41% (liquidity-weighted across 19 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 58% / Polymarket 36% — 22pp spread
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (19)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 2.5% | 34¢ | −1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-real-gdp-increase-by-more-than-25-in-q2-2026-kalshi-kxgdp-26jul30-t2.5 |
| FK Bodø/Glimt (-2.5) | 33¢ | −1pp | $532 | polymarket | /markets/fk-bodglimt-vs-molde-fk-more-markets-fk-bodglimt-2-polymarket-0x5283a21a15ec521f4337c8e4f501631b4d19582611acba8a1b641466f279dc97 |
| FK Bodø/Glimt (-1.5) | 53¢ | ±0 | $204 | polymarket | /markets/fk-bodglimt-vs-molde-fk-more-markets-fk-bodglimt-1-polymarket-0x879d113aeafd2b7a7162ce786d626c812b0279d9c74ee8e411c2981c6c0c150c |
| Above 1.5% | 66¢ | +1pp | $95 | kalshi | /markets/will-real-gdp-increase-by-more-than-15-in-q2-2026-kalshi-kxgdp-26jul30-t1.5 |
| Above 2.0% | 52¢ | +1pp | $84 | kalshi | /markets/will-real-gdp-increase-by-more-than-20-in-q2-2026-kalshi-kxgdp-26jul30-t2.0 |
| O/U 2.5 | 39¢ | −2pp | $50 | polymarket | /markets/bucheon-fc-1995-vs-jeju-sk-fc-more-markets-ou-25-polymarket-0x2226aaa7d772c031bca563f44f9b6bda8f4a893e723c20efeb17d0e4f434408f |
| Above 1.0% | 79¢ | −2pp | $46 | kalshi | /markets/will-real-gdp-increase-by-more-than-10-in-q2-2026-kalshi-kxgdp-26jul30-t1.0 |
| O/U 2.5 | 66¢ | +3pp | $43 | polymarket | /markets/shandong-taishan-fc-vs-shanghai-shenhua-fc-more-ma-polymarket-0x92fa6c618d32593fd64e01106ddf8102f987fe612e1762d2e78e0d9a38f99a3a |
| O/U 3.5 | 24¢ | −1pp | $29 | polymarket | /markets/daejeon-hana-citizen-fc-vs-incheon-united-fc-more-polymarket-0x5d58f60bcef71fbea32cd17317002ed65fef80adb99080b2bf49aa94cf71ee3d |
| O/U 2.5 | 47¢ | −2pp | $25 | polymarket | /markets/gimcheon-sangmu-fc-vs-ulsan-hd-fc-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0xc2ca5022ecefa00d5fdb377dcf1eba34cb1973d86b75b22e40122dd29ca651b6 |
| Both Teams to Score | 55¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/club-independiente-petrolero-vs-caracas-fc-more-ma-polymarket-0x14b9f0b75de481288e5696ef8208314306908fed4822f4be97d648c96bb28346 |
| O/U 2.5 | 50¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/club-independiente-petrolero-vs-caracas-fc-more-ma-polymarket-0x2b4c203ee2416f623ef5a437c78f209eb46f9098b7f83d71398fe0a77697150c |
| O/U 1.5 | 76¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/club-independiente-petrolero-vs-caracas-fc-more-ma-polymarket-0x2900cda63ccf8446260c73cf1b9df5856807e372da1671c801a15d5a47f9928a |
| Caracas FC (-1.5) | 16¢ | +8pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/club-independiente-petrolero-vs-caracas-fc-more-ma-polymarket-0x3ac6cbc94da39619fd7200b4e617781d5606050eadcf700c4b4158de539ccb5b |
| O/U 4.5 | 14¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/club-independiente-petrolero-vs-caracas-fc-more-ma-polymarket-0x3dd944ec7d753f64394be1d81d7d6847f361d7994eb9e1ac4737e97daafdaba5 |
| Club Independiente Petrolero (-2.5) | 13¢ | +9pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/club-independiente-petrolero-vs-caracas-fc-more-ma-polymarket-0x378f7bb17664bc82a0bd26b44c81d55ee6768163a8ac2315ec6fd13548fb5bbb |
| O/U 3.5 | 28¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/club-independiente-petrolero-vs-caracas-fc-more-ma-polymarket-0xf89db8c4101101525d3148e7e47b1f40ef3ddbcc210752d9ab4e54aa7dbeaff8 |
| Caracas FC (-2.5) | 12¢ | +9pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/club-independiente-petrolero-vs-caracas-fc-more-ma-polymarket-0x757589e8106cd811104f85abbf6ebfcde58ace08e7f6a1e30afa86d26f274a25 |
| Club Independiente Petrolero (-1.5) | 18¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/club-independiente-petrolero-vs-caracas-fc-more-ma-polymarket-0xc0f87e41146ade8ca73fa35afe69f2f7ad1d7776144a3bc83223d216800e3cf8 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 62 |
| 2026-04-19 | 50 |
| 2026-04-26 | 52 |
| 2026-05-03 | 33 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · O/U 2.5 −12pp 53→41¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Club Independiente Petrolero (-2.5) +9pp 12→21¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Caracas FC (-2.5) +9pp 12→21¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Caracas FC (-1.5) +8pp 20→28¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-01 · Above 1.0% +6pp 73→79¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cd-oriente-petrolero-vs-cd-real-tomayapo-more-markets-cd
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=cd-oriente-petrolero-vs-cd-real-tomayapo-more-markets-cd

## License

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