# CD Riestra vs. Grêmio FBPA

> Closed. Last odds frozen 2 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cd-riestra-vs-grmio-fbpa
Updated: 2026-05-07T00:50:58.911Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-05

## Headline

- Leader: Draw (CD Riestra vs. Grêmio FBPA) at 35%
- Runner-up: Grêmio FBPA at 33%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $703

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (CD Riestra vs. Grêmio FBPA) | 35¢ | −1pp | $675 | polymarket | /markets/cd-riestra-vs-grmio-fbpa-draw-cd-riestra-vs-grmio-polymarket-0xaf87efadad78da344413563fbaf6d9e9103557019328a376eb47f6c48520b466 |
| Grêmio FBPA | 33¢ | ±0 | $28 | polymarket | /markets/cd-riestra-vs-grmio-fbpa-grmio-fbpa-polymarket-0x28f0e72d25de71bf0c02b7e30bc66ef5a2e0104bd6f8c78c22c04e66c77fa27e |
| CD Riestra | 33¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cd-riestra-vs-grmio-fbpa-cd-riestra-polymarket-0xcb39a50e8c91772d62c897d3087de51286da51845356314757f82003c2f52360 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Draw (CD Riestra vs. Grêmio FBPA) | Grêmio FBPA | CD Riestra |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 38 | 37 | 41 |
| 2026-05-02 | 37 | 37 | 35 |
| 2026-05-03 | — | — | 34 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · CD Riestra −6pp 41→35¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 60% probability reflects market expectations that the CD Riestra vs. Grêmio FBPA match will feature fewer than 1.5 total goals scored. The relatively low volume across contracts ($0 in 24-hour trading) suggests limited market depth and confidence in the outcome. Key drivers of this level include team defensive strength, recent scoring trends, and tactical matchups. The probability would shift based on team lineups, weather conditions, or injury reports closer to kickoff. The primary uncertainty resolver is the match result itself, which will either confirm or contradict the current under/over expectation. Significant movement could occur if either team's form changes materially or if early-match conditions (first 15 minutes) suggest different offensive threat levels than currently priced in.

### Key factors

- The 60¢ O/U 1.5 contract represents the leading market opinion; a total of 0 or 1 goal aligns with this probability, while 2+ goals contradicts it
- Grêmio FBPA is priced at 33¢ to win outright, lower than the under expectation, suggesting defensive structures or scoring constraints are the primary driver
- Zero 24-hour trading volume across all 12 contracts indicates thin liquidity and potential vulnerability to sharp information or late-breaking team news
- The -2.5 spread contract trades at 11¢, implying low confidence in Grêmio FBPA beating CD Riestra by 3+ goals, limiting upside offensive scenarios
- Grêmio FBPA Both Teams to Score probability (42¢) is 18 points below the under contract (60¢), suggesting asymmetric risk—either team scoring twice is viewed as unlikely

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cd-riestra-vs-grmio-fbpa
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=cd-riestra-vs-grmio-fbpa

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.