# CD San Antonio Bulo Bulo vs. CDT Real Oruro - More Markets: O/U 1.5

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 22% across 2 contracts — refreshed 10 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cd-san-antonio-bulo-bulo-vs-cdt-real-oruro-more-markets-ou
Updated: 2026-06-08T05:20:11.689Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2028-06-29

## Headline

- Probability: 22% (liquidity-weighted across 2 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 22% / Polymarket 22% — 0pp spread
- 24h volume: $1.5M

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Antonio | 22¢ | −2pp | $1.1M | kalshi | /markets/will-the-san-antonio-win-the-2026-pro-basketball-f-kalshi-kxnba-26-sas |
| San Antonio Spurs | 22¢ | −1pp | $352K | polymarket | /markets/2026-nba-champion-san-antonio-spurs-polymarket-0xb6b3d7a2037b3faa7e1306d741840d453432902d73cc9a146a035e40271eae73 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 19 |
| 2026-05-25 | 24 |
| 2026-06-01 | 64 |
| 2026-06-07 | 22 |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-06 · San Antonio Spurs −24pp 47→23¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-06 · San Antonio −22pp 46→24¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-03 · San Antonio Spurs +22pp 42→64¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-01 · San Antonio +20pp 44→64¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-04 · San Antonio −14pp 64→50¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates a 42% probability that a match between CD San Antonio Bulo Bulo and CDT Real Oruro produces more than 1.5 goals. The probability reflects moderate expectations for offensive output, sitting near midpoint between low and high-scoring scenarios. The discrepancy between Kalshi (47%) and Polymarket (39%) suggests uncertainty about how to weight recent team performance, defensive capabilities, and playing conditions. The match outcome will depend primarily on whether these teams' typical goal-scoring patterns hold and whether defensive solidity limits opportunities. Resolution occurs immediately upon match completion, making this a straightforward binary outcome dependent on actual goals scored during full-time play.

### Key factors

- Head-to-head historical goal totals in previous meetings between these specific teams and their typical over/under rates
- Current goal-scoring and defensive metrics for both teams across their recent league matches this season
- Home/away performance split, particularly San Antonio Bulo Bulo's record at their stadium versus Real Oruro's performance on the road
- Injury status of key attacking or defensive players that could significantly alter team lineup and tactical approach
- Weather conditions on match day and field surface quality, which can materially affect gameplay pace and ball control

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=cd-san-antonio-bulo-bulo-vs-cdt-real-oruro-more-markets-ou

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