# CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football - More Markets

> Closed. Last odds frozen 1 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cd-tolima-vs-club-nacional-de-football-more-markets
Updated: 2026-05-08T00:50:26.603Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-07

## Headline

- Leader: O/U 1.5 at 67%
- Runner-up: Both Teams to Score at 47%
- Outcomes: 9 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $618

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O/U 1.5 | 67¢ | −4pp | $99 | polymarket | /markets/cd-tolima-vs-club-nacional-de-football-more-market-polymarket-0xfdd357904976eecb735dafdc4290a16944355e04fb579a734bc6b4a10cd399cb |
| Both Teams to Score | 47¢ | −8pp | $38 | polymarket | /markets/cd-tolima-vs-club-nacional-de-football-more-market-polymarket-0xcc83d19bb81e566ab17d083cfe0197824ede59e29dc065407eecb5fc378ec4a4 |
| O/U 2.5 | 40¢ | −9pp | $332 | polymarket | /markets/cd-tolima-vs-club-nacional-de-football-more-market-polymarket-0x6495f74913a1a4b90a71658c3d5837f174b49dc8078a1de854d3a922b5cf7b3b |
| CD Tolima (-1.5) | 22¢ | +15pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cd-tolima-vs-club-nacional-de-football-more-market-polymarket-0x404209171166b118cf63d3e3f1f1a4cca653dcbd737f4286da40654005230d40 |
| O/U 3.5 | 20¢ | −5pp | $63 | polymarket | /markets/cd-tolima-vs-club-nacional-de-football-more-market-polymarket-0xdd5582bfba78c459746737cc153c3e700125883fb2ad744915f0a37a374ea4ed |
| O/U 4.5 | 8¢ | +7pp | $18 | polymarket | /markets/cd-tolima-vs-club-nacional-de-football-more-market-polymarket-0xbb6532dcc365610777d9f19af2a256a8ad05cf7bc8dd28606aebebe8a1579186 |
| Club Nacional de Football (-1.5) | 8¢ | −4pp | $11 | polymarket | /markets/cd-tolima-vs-club-nacional-de-football-more-market-polymarket-0xa229d814c0cfd5d1b08fe3cb257ef751317a948c8282b05e9b5abbd46ef4a31e |
| CD Tolima (-2.5) | 6¢ | +20pp | $53 | polymarket | /markets/cd-tolima-vs-club-nacional-de-football-more-market-polymarket-0xe39b53cc6e56ef3b794d56089bd9c423d93cd45ea17ab97da86fb771480be126 |
| Club Nacional de Football (-2.5) | 3¢ | +3pp | $5 | polymarket | /markets/cd-tolima-vs-club-nacional-de-football-more-market-polymarket-0xbb148bed811390380b0e78496c32b55114ad30d56a12ecc4a2ea600300b8bc47 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | O/U 1.5 | Both Teams to Score | O/U 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | — | 43 | — |
| 2026-05-06 | 68 | 47 | 41 |
| 2026-05-07 | 64 | 39 | 32 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · CD Tolima (-2.5) +20pp 6→26¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · CD Tolima (-2.5) −17pp 23→6¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Club Nacional de Football (-1.5) −16pp 24→8¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · CD Tolima (-1.5) +15pp 20→35¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · CD Tolima (-1.5) −13pp 33→20¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 33% probability reflects market expectations that Club Nacional de Football will win or draw against CD Tolima in an upcoming Copa Libertadores match. The current odds suggest CD Tolima is favored, with contracts pricing the Colombian side at 45 cents. The probability is shaped by team form, head-to-head records, home-field advantage, and recent injury status. Resolution depends on the match outcome scheduled for early May 2026. With zero 24-hour volume across most contracts, liquidity remains minimal, meaning quoted prices may not reflect true conviction from active traders. The spread between CD Tolima (45¢) and Nacional (26¢) with draw probability unpriced separately suggests moderate confidence in a Tolima victory rather than overwhelming certainty.

### Key factors

- CD Tolima's home-field advantage at El Murillo (Ibagué) and recent domestic league form
- Club Nacional's away-match performance record and squad availability heading into the fixture
- Historical head-to-head results between the two sides in continental competition
- Market concentration risk: zero 24-hour volume indicates low liquidity and potentially stale pricing
- Match scheduling and exact date confirmation, as Copa Libertadores fixtures can shift due to security or weather concerns

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cd-tolima-vs-club-nacional-de-football-more-markets
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=cd-tolima-vs-club-nacional-de-football-more-markets

## License

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