# CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football

> Closed. Last odds frozen 1 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cd-tolima-vs-club-nacional-de-football
Updated: 2026-05-08T00:50:26.603Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-07

## Headline

- Leader: CD Tolima at 45%
- Runner-up: Draw (CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football) at 30%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $3K

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Tolima | 45¢ | +21pp | $2K | polymarket | /markets/cd-tolima-vs-club-nacional-de-football-cd-tolima-polymarket-0x2cb1e2fb116a494cacca5294d03e9fe221ed70fc11bb5fef9356f352ccadb22d |
| Draw (CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football) | 30¢ | −9pp | $191 | polymarket | /markets/cd-tolima-vs-club-nacional-de-football-draw-cd-tol-polymarket-0x8046627bf9b16a27685dfbe1933052d2a8ec9d9391dab66ebdf5b5049b762239 |
| Club Nacional de Football | 26¢ | −13pp | $667 | polymarket | /markets/cd-tolima-vs-club-nacional-de-football-club-nacion-polymarket-0x357ee8bf957beb3c437818c7d6ece5e00edc210cc6bf732a79ee168d3ca54f9b |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | CD Tolima | Draw (CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football) | Club Nacional de Football |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | 46 | — | 26 |
| 2026-05-06 | 45 | 30 | 26 |
| 2026-05-07 | 66 | 21 | 13 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · CD Tolima +21pp 45→66¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Club Nacional de Football −13pp 26→13¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Draw (CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football) −9pp 30→21¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 32% probability reflects market expectations for CD Tolima to win an upcoming match against Club Nacional de Football. The aggregated estimate masks a notable 14-percentage-point gap between venues, with Kalshi traders pricing the outcome higher (44%) than Polymarket participants (30%), suggesting different confidence levels or information sets. The probability could shift based on team form, injury status, head-to-head history, and whether either squad has momentum from recent fixtures. Resolution depends on the scheduled match date and official result. The relatively modest liquidity across related contracts indicates moderate trader interest, which could amplify price moves if significant news emerges about either team's composition or circumstances.

### Key factors

- 14-percentage-point divergence between Kalshi (44%) and Polymarket (30%) indicates disagreement on fundamental match outcome probability
- Aggregated probability of 32% implies market assigns Club Nacional de Football approximately 68% win probability or draw possibility, positioning Tolima as the underdog
- Low contract volumes ($74 24h volume on top contracts) suggest limited liquidity and potential sensitivity to new information or trader activity
- No disclosed team news, injuries, or recent form data is reflected in the published probability, creating potential for revision once match context emerges
- Match resolution date and venue conditions (altitude, weather, home-field advantage) would materially affect probability accuracy

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cd-tolima-vs-club-nacional-de-football
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=cd-tolima-vs-club-nacional-de-football

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.