# CD Universidad Católica vs. Cruzeiro EC - More Markets

> Closed. Last odds frozen 1 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cd-universidad-catlica-vs-cruzeiro-ec-more-markets
Updated: 2026-05-08T00:50:26.603Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-07

## Headline

- Leader: O/U 1.5 at 70%
- Runner-up: Both Teams to Score at 52%
- Outcomes: 9 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O/U 1.5 | 70¢ | −31pp | $42 | polymarket | /markets/cd-universidad-catlica-vs-cruzeiro-ec-more-markets-polymarket-0xe4a29d751d14018d8448c1e19597c562acff51a0ca472d9aab10de6d4f1d7751 |
| Both Teams to Score | 52¢ | −22pp | $755 | polymarket | /markets/cd-universidad-catlica-vs-cruzeiro-ec-more-markets-polymarket-0xb669de478d0b7262fc30fed5c561c0c2834e836ba14fd3a698670dcb88721baf |
| O/U 2.5 | 44¢ | −20pp | $854 | polymarket | /markets/cd-universidad-catlica-vs-cruzeiro-ec-more-markets-polymarket-0x164f43ce7d33f14d2354498cca82981a89108d89e5307ca5643ba6fa232e5e38 |
| O/U 3.5 | 23¢ | −9pp | $398 | polymarket | /markets/cd-universidad-catlica-vs-cruzeiro-ec-more-markets-polymarket-0xde80960f08969ebf88300a8bf7a178b5c5d6670690378c58f698936350afc4da |
| Cruzeiro EC (-1.5) | 17¢ | −6pp | $23 | polymarket | /markets/cd-universidad-catlica-vs-cruzeiro-ec-more-markets-polymarket-0xd7d8f701629d5d13a4cf1486051b095bc3c1e49e9f18dd9acfa8b98c62276414 |
| CD Universidad Católica (-1.5) | 12¢ | −4pp | $29 | polymarket | /markets/cd-universidad-catlica-vs-cruzeiro-ec-more-markets-polymarket-0x49cffaca26e5e3c0cba9192ada82a59cb714e96f7423af67992fb77b31da0f8c |
| O/U 4.5 | 10¢ | +5pp | $53 | polymarket | /markets/cd-universidad-catlica-vs-cruzeiro-ec-more-markets-polymarket-0x31951d2799e3e0398cb83cd160ba9c30e693bd31ac882b8c695641ddb549fba5 |
| Cruzeiro EC (-2.5) | 6¢ | +7pp | $74 | polymarket | /markets/cd-universidad-catlica-vs-cruzeiro-ec-more-markets-polymarket-0x3e4bfc6c120a70f2889df5649df1af0ebb4d2b13b09aff89a35f48b860b877e0 |
| CD Universidad Católica (-2.5) | 3¢ | +13pp | $57 | polymarket | /markets/cd-universidad-catlica-vs-cruzeiro-ec-more-markets-polymarket-0x34cc52af92fd22facecab82444be83c5c419ddbc61c78acd8335b86e7f0f06dd |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | O/U 1.5 | Both Teams to Score | O/U 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | 70 | 59 | — |
| 2026-05-06 | 71 | 52 | 44 |
| 2026-05-07 | 40 | 30 | 24 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · O/U 1.5 −31pp 71→40¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Both Teams to Score −22pp 52→30¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · O/U 2.5 −20pp 44→24¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · CD Universidad Católica (-2.5) +13pp 3→16¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · CD Universidad Católica (-2.5) −12pp 15→3¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 30% probability indicates that markets assess a roughly one-in-three chance that the CD Universidad Católica vs. Cruzeiro EC match will feature more than 2.5 goals. The current level reflects relatively low scoring expectations for this matchup, likely driven by typical defensive capabilities in South American club football and recent team form. Market conviction appears modest, evidenced by the over/under 2.5 contract pricing at 45 cents—closer to neutral than extreme. The resolution depends entirely on the match outcome once played, with the actual goal total determining whether over-2.5 expectations prove accurate. Key variables include both teams' recent scoring patterns, head-to-head history, and tactical approach. The contract's zero recent trading volume suggests limited current market interest, potentially reflecting uncertainty about match timing or participant availability.

### Key factors

- Recent goal-scoring rates for both CD Universidad Católica and Cruzeiro EC in their last 5-10 competitive matches
- Historical over/under performance in direct matchups or similar-tier South American club fixtures
- Team formation and defensive organization typical for these clubs in comparable competition levels
- Availability and form of key offensive players for both sides ahead of the scheduled match
- Market pricing across multiple over/under thresholds (2.5, 4.5) showing how conviction changes at different goal totals

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

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- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=cd-universidad-catlica-vs-cruzeiro-ec-more-markets

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