# Ceará SC vs. AC Goianiense - More Markets

> O/U 1.5 leads at 65%, runner-up 45% across 9 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 4 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cear-sc-vs-ac-goianiense-more-markets
Updated: 2026-05-09T00:05:12.276Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-09

## Headline

- Leader: O/U 1.5 at 65%
- Runner-up: Both Teams to Score at 45%
- Outcomes: 9 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O/U 1.5 | 65¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cear-sc-vs-ac-goianiense-more-markets-ou-15-polymarket-0x27421808b2d2b570538fe7ca223f36d8a1d507d98032afd86b01d4a62fdd5ad3 |
| Both Teams to Score | 45¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cear-sc-vs-ac-goianiense-more-markets-both-teams-t-polymarket-0x279e73b2a218f52635b679d70ef886cdc0dfe5dad3c569cd51266e4271907988 |
| O/U 2.5 | 37¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cear-sc-vs-ac-goianiense-more-markets-ou-25-polymarket-0x909d97aecccf19b611a9fd99ba8f8afc85f98e3b40f203346c791a247afd9db3 |
| Ceará SC (-1.5) | 23¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cear-sc-vs-ac-goianiense-more-markets-cear-sc-15-polymarket-0xfa4b498d7b420328c25d3d3fbc15079c0bf80d3c2944668ef0ebc704db77e028 |
| O/U 3.5 | 18¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cear-sc-vs-ac-goianiense-more-markets-ou-35-polymarket-0x2a37143893a91dad754da6415f1b0580256b32469e128770c95d60a17c026b45 |
| Ceará SC (-2.5) | 9¢ | −5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cear-sc-vs-ac-goianiense-more-markets-cear-sc-25-polymarket-0xb0021db017cf0bedc13bbc46719ac8eccbbfb804fe7e8d5088654990f17c17b4 |
| O/U 4.5 | 8¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cear-sc-vs-ac-goianiense-more-markets-ou-45-polymarket-0x4ec3e3929f3155f773dab73c21773cba352907f9913d881ed551cbcda709a548 |
| AC Goianiense (-1.5) | 7¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cear-sc-vs-ac-goianiense-more-markets-ac-goianiens-polymarket-0x7eb961253f9986d71190be9b4a6f0f2b093818f4949c7d6cf1a3496b17f5409a |
| AC Goianiense (-2.5) | 5¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cear-sc-vs-ac-goianiense-more-markets-ac-goianiens-polymarket-0x78d526198e6aeda797c6dbbab660d1453441dcfd15a33e3c2b71448a4e1ce04b |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | O/U 1.5 | Both Teams to Score | O/U 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | 66 | 48 | 38 |
| 2026-05-07 | 66 | 46 | 38 |
| 2026-05-08 | 67 | 46 | 38 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Ceará SC (-2.5) −5pp 17→12¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · AC Goianiense (-2.5) −3pp 11→8¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · AC Goianiense (-1.5) −3pp 13→10¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

The 45% probability indicates that traders currently assess a moderate-to-better-than-even likelihood that both Ceará SC and AC Goianiense will score in their upcoming match. This outcome sits as the leading contract despite minimal recent trading volume across all three related markets. The probability reflects general expectations about offensive output from both sides, though sparse liquidity suggests limited conviction among traders. Factors like team form, defensive vulnerabilities, and recent head-to-head scoring patterns would typically influence such assessments. Without recent trading activity or clear market signals, the 45% represents a relatively static snapshot rather than dynamic price discovery. Resolution will occur when the match concludes and actual goal distribution becomes known.

### Key factors

- Both Teams to Score contract trades at 45¢ while alternative outcomes (Ceará -2.5 at 15¢ and Ceará -1.5 at 23¢) sum to 38¢, indicating asymmetric market expectations
- Zero 24-hour trading volume across all three contracts suggests low market engagement and potentially stale pricing
- The 45% probability reflects traders believe both teams are more likely to score than not, but the gap from 50% indicates skepticism about balanced offensive threat
- Ceará SC (-1.5) contract pricing at 23¢ implies roughly 23% probability of a two-goal Ceará victory, constraining how high both-teams-to-score can realistically reach
- Match outcome depends on specific team lineups, recent injury status, and whether either side prioritizes defensive setup over attacking intensity

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

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