# Will Eduardo Girão win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 49% across 2 contracts — refreshed 29 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cearagov
Updated: 2026-08-24T22:20:49.804Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-10-04

## Headline

- Probability: 49% (liquidity-weighted across 2 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ciro Gomes | 62¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ciro-gomes-win-the-2026-cear-gubernatorial-el-kalshi-kxcearagov-26oct04-cgom |
| Elmano de Freitas | 35¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-elmano-de-freitas-win-the-2026-cear-gubernato-kalshi-kxcearagov-26oct04-efre |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | 46 |
| 2026-08-12 | 47 |
| 2026-08-17 | 39 |
| 2026-08-24 | 61 |

_17 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-17 · Elmano de Freitas −21pp 31→10¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-17 · Ciro Gomes +8pp 59→67¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-21 · Ciro Gomes −7pp 71→64¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-22 · Elmano de Freitas +7pp 27→34¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-19 · Elmano de Freitas +6pp 15→21¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects the current market assessment that Eduardo Girão has a 33% chance of winning the Ceará gubernatorial election in 2026. Girão trails significantly behind Ciro Gomes, who is priced at 66% and represents the current frontrunner, while incumbent Elmano de Freitas shows 28% probability. The market appears to be pricing in Girão's name recognition as a federal senator but positioning him behind two more established figures in state politics. The probability could shift based on campaign dynamics, endorsement announcements, and polling releases leading up to election day. The election itself, scheduled for October 2026, will ultimately resolve this contract when results are confirmed.

### Key factors

- Ciro Gomes holds 66% contract price compared to Girão's 5¢, suggesting markets view him as the clear frontrunner
- Incumbent governor Elmano de Freitas at 28% indicates fragmentation among establishment candidates
- Eduardo Girão's federal senate profile versus limited recent gubernatorial track record in Ceará state politics
- Campaign financing disclosures and major endorsements typically influence state election markets 3-6 months before voting
- Public polling data from reputable firms will likely move these probabilities once released in Q3 2026

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cearagov
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=cearagov
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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