# Central Bank of Colombia Decision in June

> No change leads at 50%, runner-up 32% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 6 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/central-bank-of-colombia-decision-june
Updated: 2026-05-03T18:05:56.578Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Leader: No change at 50%
- Runner-up: Increase at 32%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No change | 50¢ | −5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/central-bank-of-colombia-decision-in-june-no-chang-polymarket-0xdb57f9b9232a158cb5837b0d33ff54d61cdb8cce1ab4c9cd2a2bf57b284d5d22 |
| Increase | 32¢ | −6pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/central-bank-of-colombia-decision-in-june-increase-polymarket-0xde7971d294b406b3184545a9295b01ba25d45e0358108710986c0b5b1393c478 |
| Decrease | 5¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/central-bank-of-colombia-decision-in-june-decrease-polymarket-0xfd60b975dc670704eb83ea1e8a2b06726e9cb88d57bcb1524fa7d472ad7698b6 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | No change | Increase | Decrease |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-24 | 20 | — | — |
| 2026-04-25 | 22 | 75 | 8 |
| 2026-04-26 | 23 | 74 | 7 |
| 2026-05-02 | 53 | 35 | 5 |
| 2026-05-03 | 48 | 29 | — |

_10 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-01 · Increase −29pp 64→35¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-01 · No change +21pp 36→57¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-30 · Decrease −17pp 23→6¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · Decrease +15pp 8→23¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-30 · Increase −9pp 73→64¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

The 40% probability reflects market expectations that Colombia's central bank will take action on rates in June 2026. Colombia's monetary policy direction hinges on inflation trends and economic growth relative to the bank's targets. Recent inflation readings, employment data, and regional rate decisions by peers like Brazil and Mexico typically influence Colombian policymakers. The central bank's June decision meeting will resolve this uncertainty—market participants are pricing in a near-coin-flip scenario between a rate change and holding steady. Regional context matters: other Latin American central banks are currently in different policy phases, affecting capital flows and currency pressures that Colombian officials monitor closely.

### Key factors

- Colombia's year-to-date inflation rate relative to the central bank's target band and trend versus previous months
- Recent employment and GDP growth data, with weaker economic activity typically supporting rate cuts and stronger growth supporting holds or hikes
- Central Bank of Brazil's recent policy stance and statements, given regional spillover effects on Colombian monetary conditions
- USD/COP exchange rate movements and external capital flow patterns in the weeks preceding the June decision
- Forward guidance or communications from Colombian central bank officials between now and June regarding inflation outlook and economic risks

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/central-bank-of-colombia-decision-june
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=central-bank-of-colombia-decision-june

## License

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