# Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Avispa Fukuoka

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 33% across 20 contracts — refreshed 10 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cerezo-saka-vs-avispa-fukuoka
Updated: 2026-05-03T18:35:49.762Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-08

## Headline

- Probability: 33% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $26

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O/U 2.5 | 54¢ | — | $15 | polymarket | /markets/shimizu-s-pulse-vs-cerezo-saka-more-markets-ou-25-polymarket-0xd2a2424ae02003bbb337e656c3987b2b1d12ad9aad7fb9edb5868b6fa5a444ad |
| O/U 2.5 | 41¢ | — | $11 | polymarket | /markets/avispa-fukuoka-vs-kyto-sanga-fc-more-markets-ou-25-polymarket-0xd9e96a64db32554c4a5a6b4f41279fa3b90ac2b57d0c50103860e12e40733268 |
| O/U 1.5 | 77¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/shimizu-s-pulse-vs-cerezo-saka-more-markets-ou-15-polymarket-0x699392956e8574b0068655f04c86340395da905db9a0a1c83691c96f140376a7 |
| Cerezo Ōsaka (-2.5) | 12¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/shimizu-s-pulse-vs-cerezo-saka-more-markets-cerezo-polymarket-0xbf161f60415e3e1fcbafa287b25cd8af8d21cc294931ae609a766e80193eec44 |
| Both Teams to Score | 60¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/shimizu-s-pulse-vs-cerezo-saka-more-markets-both-t-polymarket-0xfb2380378688704b47494565f0cefde372a42d15936b8d92a9350bfe9e8afa88 |
| O/U 4.5 | 14¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/avispa-fukuoka-vs-kyto-sanga-fc-more-markets-ou-45-polymarket-0x8ab58d7d68d2735114ad04e269a9af95e139735de128beb2c765d39dd0489774 |
| Draw (Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka) | 27¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/shimizu-s-pulse-vs-cerezo-saka-draw-shimizu-s-puls-polymarket-0xbd1972d70c4630591115085060040b342649031614502b0b4b4b219d13ddc96f |
| Cerezo Ōsaka | 35¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/shimizu-s-pulse-vs-cerezo-saka-cerezo-saka-polymarket-0x87c3405568fdeaf6f7e7e6b396212b4ce8637e3e57f51308effe50224a1b889a |
| Shimizu S-Pulse (-1.5) | 17¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/shimizu-s-pulse-vs-cerezo-saka-more-markets-shimiz-polymarket-0x58a32c1a02227c98b8f87cbe8d4ae68c2fd5c63177f81dbcd5d059cf06b77fa2 |
| O/U 3.5 | 20¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/avispa-fukuoka-vs-kyto-sanga-fc-more-markets-ou-35-polymarket-0xf1423f63f1a0ad179af8e4828f4df3595480e6b6ae4cf0dd26cdf4cd74041619 |
| Avispa Fukuoka (-2.5) | 11¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/avispa-fukuoka-vs-kyto-sanga-fc-more-markets-avisp-polymarket-0xf35f621ce574603ed9be29ced4c295540e0fbdffa6f70e74c326153ace076fe2 |
| Shimizu S-Pulse (-2.5) | 13¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/shimizu-s-pulse-vs-cerezo-saka-more-markets-shimiz-polymarket-0xc33d1c5ce506ddb23d75e315a0dc7191503b35752a13331c1bb03b4e0f2e62ae |
| O/U 1.5 | 68¢ | +7pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/avispa-fukuoka-vs-kyto-sanga-fc-more-markets-ou-15-polymarket-0xd4cc9afee05ce80f6b23cc017e3d9f86a7a62eb866e03d7484431a9a55c38cd8 |
| Shimizu S-Pulse | 38¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/shimizu-s-pulse-vs-cerezo-saka-shimizu-s-pulse-polymarket-0x434537039ebd1deb897d55cff5634d5625c6c29f7faef1a90cd41f64b602a9ae |
| Both Teams to Score | 49¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/avispa-fukuoka-vs-kyto-sanga-fc-more-markets-both-polymarket-0x35fac179b3dbc0289e4000749ccf236afea6d0500b4671939c331fc0b221c35e |
| Avispa Fukuoka | 32¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/avispa-fukuoka-vs-kyto-sanga-fc-avispa-fukuoka-polymarket-0x805f95840ab0ed43172a3f2195f2cac152f0d6e12d3fe7028ca4dd91db5d893c |
| Draw (Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC) | 30¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/avispa-fukuoka-vs-kyto-sanga-fc-draw-avispa-fukuok-polymarket-0xdf82b18e1af51be650c130d61a97a0967f0095aa7737b396db70d426bd6d7194 |
| Kyōto Sanga FC (-2.5) | 12¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/avispa-fukuoka-vs-kyto-sanga-fc-more-markets-kyto-polymarket-0xce29520e287e87ae78f2af8b3d8b68c8165203f33c82d9dcc3379088b4204178 |
| Kyōto Sanga FC | 40¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/avispa-fukuoka-vs-kyto-sanga-fc-kyto-sanga-fc-polymarket-0xe6b9d547786ade247dba78e12c650c766fd6347c665d671ee8625c7ee0882783 |
| Cerezo Ōsaka (-1.5) | 14¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/shimizu-s-pulse-vs-cerezo-saka-more-markets-cerezo-polymarket-0x3391937d9b697a5bd01565766582c3bf31c8227da2901e673fdf86f17afc6144 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 36 |
| 2026-05-02 | 38 |
| 2026-05-03 | 41 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · O/U 1.5 +7pp 62→69¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Cerezo Ōsaka (-2.5) +3pp 28→31¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This represents a 45% probability that Cerezo Ōsaka will win against Avispa Fukuoka in their matchup. The current probability reflects moderate uncertainty about the outcome, suggesting near even odds between the two J-League clubs. Cerezo's winning chances would likely increase with recent strong form, home-field advantage if applicable, or key player availability, while they could decrease if Avispa shows superior recent performance or has favorable head-to-head history. The resolution will occur at the conclusion of the scheduled match, with the actual result determining whether this outcome occurs. Market activity has been minimal across related contracts, indicating low trading volume and potentially wide bid-ask spreads that could affect pricing accuracy. Recent performance records, team composition changes, and injury status for key players heading into the match will be primary factors shaping final odds adjustments.

### Key factors

- Cerezo Ōsaka's recent form and position in the J-League standings relative to Avispa Fukuoka
- Head-to-head historical performance and results between these two clubs in recent seasons
- Injury or suspension status of key players for either team prior to match day
- Home/away designation and venue-specific performance patterns for both clubs
- Avispa Fukuoka's current momentum and recent scoring/defensive metrics

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cerezo-saka-vs-avispa-fukuoka
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=cerezo-saka-vs-avispa-fukuoka

## License

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