# Cerezo Ōsaka vs. V-Varen Nagasaki - More Markets: V-Varen Nagasaki (-1.5)

> V-Varen Nagasaki (-1.5) leads at 7%, runner-up 3% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 7 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cerezo-saka-vs-vvaren-nagasaki-more-markets-vvaren-nagasaki
Updated: 2026-05-09T00:20:14.662Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-09

## Headline

- Leader: V-Varen Nagasaki (-1.5) at 7%
- Runner-up: V-Varen Nagasaki (-2.5) at 3%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $45

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V-Varen Nagasaki (-1.5) | 7¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cerezo-saka-vs-v-varen-nagasaki-more-markets-v-var-polymarket-0xa3d8722a75490773691ed6d63555a8a7bc024ac135dc0162e4d34560e5ead28d |
| V-Varen Nagasaki (-2.5) | 3¢ | −1pp | $45 | polymarket | /markets/cerezo-saka-vs-v-varen-nagasaki-more-markets-v-var-polymarket-0x8ffae3748c5dd8950cd4ce65f2ca3177524c263533cd3ac87db6e3b8b85ab6db |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | V-Varen Nagasaki (-1.5) | V-Varen Nagasaki (-2.5) |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | 14 | 22 |
| 2026-05-07 | 10 | 6 |
| 2026-05-08 | 8 | 4 |
| 2026-05-09 | 9 | 3 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · V-Varen Nagasaki (-2.5) −16pp 22→6¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · V-Varen Nagasaki (-1.5) −4pp 14→10¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market reflects a 32% probability that V-Varen Nagasaki will win by 1.5 goals or more against Cerezo Ōsaka in an upcoming J-League match. The probability suggests market participants favor Cerezo Ōsaka slightly, with the spread odds leaning toward a closer contest or Cerezo victory. The current level likely reflects relative team form, recent head-to-head records, and home/away status. Resolution will occur at the match conclusion, when the final goal differential becomes known. Minimal trading volume to date indicates limited liquidity and potential for price movement as the match approaches and more information emerges about team lineups, injuries, or weather conditions.

### Key factors

- Team league standing and recent performance trends (wins/losses in last 5-10 matches)
- Head-to-head historical records between Cerezo Ōsaka and V-Varen Nagasaki
- Home/away status and venue (pitch conditions, crowd support)
- Key player availability, confirmed injuries, or suspension status for either team
- Match kickoff date and weather forecast if available, which can affect team tactics and scoring patterns

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cerezo-saka-vs-vvaren-nagasaki-more-markets-vvaren-nagasaki
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=cerezo-saka-vs-vvaren-nagasaki-more-markets-vvaren-nagasaki

## License

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