# CF Cruz Azul vs. Club Necaxa

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 23% across 8 contracts — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cf-cruz-azul-vs-club-necaxa
Updated: 2026-05-03T21:20:50.066Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-08

## Headline

- Probability: 23% (liquidity-weighted across 8 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 3% / Polymarket 26% — 23pp spread
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cruz Azul | 3¢ | −6pp | $941 | kalshi | /markets/will-cruz-azul-win-the-liga-mx-clausura-cruz-azul-kalshi-kxligamx-26cla-cra |
| CA Lanús | 22¢ | — | $363 | polymarket | /markets/club-always-ready-vs-ca-lans-ca-lans-polymarket-0x4eec59e01470b72978c3eb8d56e7610e1e53db931b6fc627b1cd4f6c489c304b |
| Winner: Cruz Azul | 32¢ | −19pp | $118 | polymarket | /markets/liga-mx-winner-cruz-azul-polymarket-0xabb43b06e7395ba64710440c817ba9a0d9f2e060bf79c3b852b758e0c68d0d0a |
| O/U 2.5 | 41¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cd-tolima-vs-club-nacional-de-football-more-market-polymarket-0x6495f74913a1a4b90a71658c3d5837f174b49dc8078a1de854d3a922b5cf7b3b |
| National Bank of Egypt Club (-2.5) | 13¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/national-bank-of-egypt-club-vs-ismaily-sc-more-mar-polymarket-0x5d63d2f688c2e4b13f5e7bd161cd631fb069fdb4b896d52314d980484ec8892c |
| Ismaily SC (-1.5) | 13¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/national-bank-of-egypt-club-vs-ismaily-sc-more-mar-polymarket-0xaa1d2cf2e3fb0c19ffa4ed284b48d773535b110c5f32aebad7c9f6bab9136cde |
| National Bank of Egypt Club (-1.5) | 30¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/national-bank-of-egypt-club-vs-ismaily-sc-more-mar-polymarket-0x21ed5aba5907f2ff4e00718c5dd36c1a349116f982ae00f4e44f1eafb5d15e0d |
| Draw (CA Barracas Central vs. Club Olimpia) | 32¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ca-barracas-central-vs-club-olimpia-draw-ca-barrac-polymarket-0x56b99e08aa98928f055e0e6f0490d58a7eb0c26d89c9db450bd099de789ce1d8 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 16 |
| 2026-04-19 | 12 |
| 2026-04-26 | 23 |
| 2026-05-03 | 25 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-29 · Winner: Cruz Azul −20pp 34→14¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Winner: Cruz Azul −19pp 25→6¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-30 · Cruz Azul −10pp 20→10¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-27 · Cruz Azul +7pp 9→16¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · Cruz Azul +7pp 10→17¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cf-cruz-azul-vs-club-necaxa
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=cf-cruz-azul-vs-club-necaxa

## License

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