# CF Montréal vs. New York City FC

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 35% across 20 contracts — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cf-montral-vs-new-york-city-fc
Updated: 2026-05-03T14:35:26.842Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 35% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 29% / Polymarket 39% — 10pp spread
- 24h volume: $37K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma City vs New York | 25¢ | +8pp | $22K | kalshi | /markets/will-oklahoma-city-vs-new-york-be-the-matchup-in-t-kalshi-kxteamsinnbaf-26-okcnyk |
| Rain in NYC | 3¢ | +7pp | $8K | kalshi | /markets/will-it-rain-in-new-york-city-on-sunday-rain-in-ny-kalshi-kxrainnyc-26may03-t0 |
| DC United | 19¢ | ±0 | $3K | kalshi | /markets/new-york-city-vs-dc-united-winner-dc-united-kalshi-kxmlsgame-26may03nycdcu-dcu |
| New York City | 54¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/new-york-city-vs-dc-united-winner-new-york-city-kalshi-kxmlsgame-26may03nycdcu-nyc |
| Tie | 25¢ | +2pp | $884 | kalshi | /markets/new-york-city-vs-dc-united-winner-tie-kalshi-kxmlsgame-26may03nycdcu-tie |
| New York City wins by over 1.5 goals | 28¢ | −1pp | $824 | kalshi | /markets/new-york-city-wins-by-over-15-goals-new-york-city-kalshi-kxmlsspread-26may03nycdcu-nyc1 |
| Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored | 75¢ | +2pp | $418 | kalshi | /markets/dc-united-at-new-york-city-totals-over-15-goals-sc-kalshi-kxmlstotal-26may03nycdcu-1 |
| Draw (New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC) | 31¢ | +8pp | $5 | polymarket | /markets/new-york-city-fc-vs-los-angeles-fc-draw-new-york-c-polymarket-0x5a91d9281a150fbb85af01aec69213aafb527507bfcf6b1e8ebca90fcbb6bd67 |
| Los Angeles FC (-2.5) | 28¢ | +5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/new-york-city-fc-vs-los-angeles-fc-more-markets-lo-polymarket-0x8cd527f3f12d1be337c35190a6bfe356675629909cbf9b532efdb5173accd5dd |
| New York City FC | 49¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/new-york-city-fc-vs-los-angeles-fc-new-york-city-f-polymarket-0x07aa441123aa310a7949312c6233f1d291bd78e1fe5da57c94fa1f4d03c40a4c |
| O/U 2.5 | 54¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/new-york-city-fc-vs-los-angeles-fc-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0xfb53dd6e13e99ece1a90b3bc7f0934ba6bdf58aef1c18fd059cd33befde82bf6 |
| Los Angeles FC | 35¢ | +10pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/new-york-city-fc-vs-los-angeles-fc-los-angeles-fc-polymarket-0x48b1ea27906ecaefada5b8f54b145f1699d3a098b41a5622608438c209e07948 |
| Both Teams to Score | 51¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/new-york-city-fc-vs-los-angeles-fc-more-markets-bo-polymarket-0x361d0825fd5d45ed9f9fffca2764928f720727ea72d2576db6974c6d2de1fcba |
| New York City FC (-1.5) | 32¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/new-york-city-fc-vs-los-angeles-fc-more-markets-ne-polymarket-0x52ecc53ae751a4a04406a38d2eae3d0bb5c00a4010daf306acb60d6c2f391539 |
| O/U 4.5 | 29¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/new-york-city-fc-vs-los-angeles-fc-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0x3b1359b9f8079ea94c2bd322eac8ad2a438ee02512379e968426b64f1395c2a6 |
| New York City FC (-2.5) | 31¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/new-york-city-fc-vs-los-angeles-fc-more-markets-ne-polymarket-0x749d6005cbd935d0457b1ba46084f8fed6e75daea118208b0a6f978d36a9214e |
| O/U 3.5 | 36¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/new-york-city-fc-vs-los-angeles-fc-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0x087e96b348af724088fc5c0c9620932971bbee21079bd0619bac94f9d8554031 |
| O/U 1.5 | 65¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/new-york-city-fc-vs-los-angeles-fc-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0x0e25b551a118495f7e2c433fd68e6e53fcf38d6641d1723c648e6161691a6674 |
| Los Angeles FC (-1.5) | 30¢ | +5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/new-york-city-fc-vs-los-angeles-fc-more-markets-lo-polymarket-0xe4ead24bcac5166d1bae6a470ba123e2cbdb92fd779b7db7398eb820073c9aca |
| New York City | 3¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-york-city-win-the-mls-cup-new-york-city-kalshi-kxmlscup-26-nyc |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 2 |
| 2026-04-19 | 6 |
| 2026-04-26 | 30 |
| 2026-05-03 | 39 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Los Angeles FC +10pp 18→28¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Oklahoma City vs New York +8pp 18→26¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Draw (New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC) +8pp 18→26¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Rain in NYC +7pp 2→9¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · Oklahoma City vs New York +6pp 10→16¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cf-montral-vs-new-york-city-fc
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=cf-montral-vs-new-york-city-fc

## License

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