# CF Montréal vs. Orlando City SC

> CF Montréal leads at 50%, runner-up 27% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 4 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cf-montral-vs-orlando-city-sc
Updated: 2026-05-09T00:05:15.049Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-09

## Headline

- Leader: CF Montréal at 50%
- Runner-up: Orlando City SC at 27%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CF Montréal | 50¢ | −1pp | $507 | polymarket | /markets/cf-montral-vs-orlando-city-sc-cf-montral-polymarket-0x9cb68f40296cc804cf7d3fd7533d9b30d1de01c705cc367d397af343105cdf8c |
| Orlando City SC | 27¢ | — | $243 | polymarket | /markets/cf-montral-vs-orlando-city-sc-orlando-city-sc-polymarket-0xcd2d3e43095aef917f2fca6662389cca54e81632f252fe8c24837e915db4b845 |
| Draw (CF Montréal vs. Orlando City SC) | 25¢ | — | $644 | polymarket | /markets/cf-montral-vs-orlando-city-sc-draw-cf-montral-vs-o-polymarket-0x5859e167ae748a10ca0952a3d025d4a68359b154b0468124cebb76d0bb5fc739 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | CF Montréal | Orlando City SC | Draw (CF Montréal vs. Orlando City SC) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | 51 | 27 | — |
| 2026-05-07 | 50 | — | 24 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This 25% probability indicates that Orlando City SC is viewed as a slight underdog in the upcoming match against CF Montréal, with a draw assigned nearly identical odds at 24%. The market currently prices Montreal's win implicitly at around 51%, reflecting a competitive matchup. Key drivers of this probability include recent team form, injury status, and head-to-head performance in the 2026 MLS season. The primary catalyst resolving this uncertainty will be the scheduled match kickoff, which will determine the outcome and collapse all three possibilities (Montreal win, draw, Orlando win) to certainty. Current trading volume remains modest at $11 over 24 hours, suggesting limited market conviction at these odds. The near-parity between Orlando and draw outcomes indicates meaningful uncertainty about the result.

### Key factors

- Orlando City SC's current league position and goal differential compared to CF Montréal's standing in the 2026 MLS season
- Recent form over the last 5-10 matches for both teams, including goals scored and conceded patterns
- Head-to-head results and performance metrics between these two opponents in the 2026 season to date
- Confirmed lineup availability and injury status for key players on both sides entering the match
- Home/away advantage and venue-specific performance data if the match location significantly favors one team

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cf-montral-vs-orlando-city-sc
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=cf-montral-vs-orlando-city-sc

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.