# CF Pachuca vs. Pumas de la UNAM

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 32% across 10 contracts — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cf-pachuca-vs-pumas-de-la-unam
Updated: 2026-05-03T21:20:52.639Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 32% (liquidity-weighted across 10 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 31% / Polymarket 46% — 15pp spread
- 24h volume: $148K

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pumas UNAM | 27¢ | ±0 | $98K | kalshi | /markets/america-vs-pumas-unam-winner-pumas-unam-kalshi-kxligamxgame-26may03amepum-pum |
| America | 46¢ | −1pp | $35K | kalshi | /markets/america-vs-pumas-unam-winner-america-kalshi-kxligamxgame-26may03amepum-ame |
| Tie | 26¢ | +2pp | $9K | kalshi | /markets/america-vs-pumas-unam-winner-tie-kalshi-kxligamxgame-26may03amepum-tie |
| Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored | 47¢ | +1pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/pumas-unam-at-america-totals-over-25-goals-scored-kalshi-kxligamxtotal-26may03amepum-2 |
| Pumas UNAM | 13¢ | −11pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-pumas-unam-win-the-liga-mx-clausura-pumas-una-kalshi-kxligamx-26cla-pum |
| Pumas UNAM wins by over 1.5 goals | 9¢ | +5pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/pumas-unam-wins-by-over-15-goals-pumas-unam-wins-b-kalshi-kxligamxspread-26may03amepum-pum1 |
| Totals: Over 3.5 goals scored | 25¢ | −1pp | $658 | kalshi | /markets/pumas-unam-at-america-totals-over-35-goals-scored-kalshi-kxligamxtotal-26may03amepum-3 |
| Totals: Over 4.5 goals scored | 11¢ | −2pp | $588 | kalshi | /markets/pumas-unam-at-america-totals-over-45-goals-scored-kalshi-kxligamxtotal-26may03amepum-4 |
| Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored | 73¢ | +1pp | $250 | kalshi | /markets/pumas-unam-at-america-totals-over-15-goals-scored-kalshi-kxligamxtotal-26may03amepum-1 |
| Winner: Pumas UNAM | 46¢ | +14pp | $20 | polymarket | /markets/liga-mx-winner-pumas-unam-polymarket-0x48763eee044da3652a5e4e3185874fbbc97f41ec0b10c1eeff77b355b610380a |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 10 |
| 2026-04-19 | 9 |
| 2026-04-26 | 31 |
| 2026-05-03 | 31 |

_25 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-29 · Winner: Pumas UNAM −16pp 38→22¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Winner: Pumas UNAM +14pp 23→37¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-01 · America +11pp 39→50¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Pumas UNAM −11pp 20→9¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · Pumas UNAM +7pp 19→26¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cf-pachuca-vs-pumas-de-la-unam
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=cf-pachuca-vs-pumas-de-la-unam

## License

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