# Will Chick-fil-A Monthly Credit Card Spend for August 2026 be above 102

> Above 101 leads at 76%, runner-up 65% across 9 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cfilcc
Updated: 2026-08-11T19:20:50.969Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-09-07

## Headline

- Leader: Above 101 at 76%
- Runner-up: Above 102 at 65%
- Outcomes: 9 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 101 | 76¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-chick-fil-a-monthly-credit-card-spend-for-aug-kalshi-kxcfilcc-26sep07-t101 |
| Above 102 | 65¢ | −5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-chick-fil-a-monthly-credit-card-spend-for-aug-kalshi-kxcfilcc-26sep07-t102 |
| Above 103 | 54¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-chick-fil-a-monthly-credit-card-spend-for-aug-kalshi-kxcfilcc-26sep07-t103 |
| Above 104 | 40¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-chick-fil-a-monthly-credit-card-spend-for-aug-kalshi-kxcfilcc-26sep07-t104 |
| Above 105 | 28¢ | −5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-chick-fil-a-monthly-credit-card-spend-for-aug-kalshi-kxcfilcc-26sep07-t105 |
| Above 106 | 21¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-chick-fil-a-monthly-credit-card-spend-for-aug-kalshi-kxcfilcc-26sep07-t106 |
| Above 107 | 15¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-chick-fil-a-monthly-credit-card-spend-for-aug-kalshi-kxcfilcc-26sep07-t107 |
| Above 111 | 5¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-chick-fil-a-monthly-credit-card-spend-for-aug-kalshi-kxcfilcc-26sep07-t111 |
| Above 108 | 4¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-chick-fil-a-monthly-credit-card-spend-for-aug-kalshi-kxcfilcc-26sep07-t108 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 101 | Above 102 | Above 103 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | 57 | 55 | 55 |
| 2026-08-05 | 66 | 63 | 61 |
| 2026-08-06 | — | 70 | 58 |
| 2026-08-07 | — | — | 57 |
| 2026-08-09 | 75 | 65 | 54 |
| 2026-08-10 | 76 | — | — |

_6 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-06 · Above 104 −10pp 52→42¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-05 · Above 101 +9pp 57→66¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-09 · Above 101 +9pp 66→75¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-06 · Above 105 −9pp 39→30¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-05 · Above 102 +8pp 55→63¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability indicates market expectations that Chick-fil-A credit card spending will exceed $102 million in August 2026, with forecasters assessing roughly even odds. The market is pricing in baseline consumer spending patterns, seasonal summer traffic, and any macroeconomic headwinds affecting discretionary spending. August spending typically reflects mid-summer consumer behavior, including back-to-school preparation and vacation season activity. The key uncertainty centers on whether actual credit card transaction volumes will land above or below the $102 million threshold. Resolution will occur when Chick-fil-A releases or confirms August 2026 credit card spending data. The tight clustering of probabilities around 48-53% across the $101-104 range suggests forecasters view this outcome as highly uncertain, with limited conviction in either direction. Notable is the sharp drop to 36% at the $105 million level, indicating spending above that point is considered less likely by current market participants.

### Key factors

- Seasonal August traffic patterns and back-to-school consumer spending trends
- Macroeconomic conditions affecting discretionary fast-casual dining expenditures in summer 2026
- Historical Chick-fil-A credit card spend volatility and baseline monthly transaction volumes
- Credit card payment adoption rates relative to cash and other payment methods at Chick-fil-A locations
- Data release date and methodology for confirming August 2026 credit card spending figures

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/cfilcc
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=cfilcc

## License

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