# UEFA Champions League

> Closed. Last odds frozen 8 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/champions-league
Updated: 2026-05-30T19:20:12.869Z
Category: sports · Topic: football
Status: historical
Closes: 2028-05-29

## Headline

- Probability: 50% (liquidity-weighted across 2 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $967K

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSG | 57¢ | −1pp | $625K | kalshi | /markets/will-psg-win-the-champions-league-winner-psg-kalshi-kxucl-26-psg |
| Arsenal | 43¢ | ±0 | $342K | kalshi | /markets/will-arsenal-win-the-champions-league-winner-arsen-kalshi-kxucl-26-ars |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 50 |
| 2026-05-25 | 58 |
| 2026-05-29 | 50 |

_15 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

The 37% probability reflects expectations that the UEFA Champions League winner will be one of the top-tier European clubs currently competing in the 2025-26 season. The aggregate probability is driven by distributed betting across multiple strong contenders: Bayern Munich at 37¢, Arsenal and PSG each at 27¢, and Atlético Madrid at 12¢ for outright winner, with Atlético also favored at 37¢ to reach the final. The market's aggregated view suggests meaningful uncertainty among several candidates rather than a dominant favorite. The probability could shift significantly based on knockout-stage matchups (Round of 16 onwards), injury developments to key players, or surprise performances by mid-tier clubs. Resolution occurs in late May 2026 when the final is played, at which point the actual winner eliminates all other possibilities. Current trading volume is concentrated on outright winner contracts, indicating active reassessment of contenders' prospects as the tournament progresses.

### Key factors

- Bayern Munich, Arsenal, and PSG each command 27-37¢ individually, suggesting no single team dominates market expectations and shifts between them could materially move the aggregate probability
- Atlético Madrid is valued significantly lower (12¢ for winner but 37¢ to reach final), indicating market uncertainty about their ability to convert final appearances into titles
- The 3 percentage-point gap between Polymarket (37%) and Kalshi (34%) reflects differences in contract count and weighting, with Polymarket offering 19 contracts versus Kalshi's 1, suggesting higher liquidity on Polymarket may better reflect marginal pricing
- Knockout-stage draw and matchups (determined in advance) directly determine which teams face each other, with favorable draws potentially shifting individual team probabilities substantially
- Twenty-four hour trading volumes exceed $30,000 on Bayern and $15,000+ on other top candidates, indicating active repricing and suggesting the market is processing new information regularly

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/champions-league
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=champions-league
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/football

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.