# Will Bernhard Langer win the Regions Tradition

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 6% across 14 contracts — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/champtour
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:23.049Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-24

## Headline

- Probability: 6% (liquidity-weighted across 14 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (14 contracts)
- 24h volume: $10K

## Bound contracts (14)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stewart Cink | 23¢ | ±0 | $5K | kalshi | /markets/will-stewart-cink-win-the-insperity-invitational-s-kalshi-kxchamptour-ini26-scin |
| Ben Crane | 11¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-ben-crane-win-the-insperity-invitational-ben-kalshi-kxchamptour-ini26-bcra |
| Rory Sabbatini | 5¢ | −2pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-rory-sabbatini-win-the-insperity-invitational-kalshi-kxchamptour-ini26-rsab |
| Thongchai Jaidee | 6¢ | +1pp | $865 | kalshi | /markets/will-thongchai-jaidee-win-the-insperity-invitation-kalshi-kxchamptour-ini26-tjai |
| Shane Bertsch | 3¢ | — | $335 | kalshi | /markets/will-shane-bertsch-win-the-insperity-invitational-kalshi-kxchamptour-ini26-sber |
| Y.E. Yang | 3¢ | — | $331 | kalshi | /markets/will-ye-yang-win-the-insperity-invitational-ye-yan-kalshi-kxchamptour-ini26-yyan |
| Richard Green | 3¢ | — | $179 | kalshi | /markets/will-richard-green-win-the-insperity-invitational-kalshi-kxchamptour-ini26-rgre |
| Darren Clarke | 3¢ | — | $179 | kalshi | /markets/will-darren-clarke-win-the-insperity-invitational-kalshi-kxchamptour-ini26-dcla |
| Brian Gay | 3¢ | — | $179 | kalshi | /markets/will-brian-gay-win-the-insperity-invitational-bria-kalshi-kxchamptour-ini26-bgay |
| Michael Wright | 3¢ | — | $179 | kalshi | /markets/will-michael-wright-win-the-insperity-invitational-kalshi-kxchamptour-ini26-mwri |
| Justin Leonard | 3¢ | — | $160 | kalshi | /markets/will-justin-leonard-win-the-insperity-invitational-kalshi-kxchamptour-ini26-jleo |
| Zach Johnson | 11¢ | ±0 | $113 | kalshi | /markets/will-zach-johnson-win-the-insperity-invitational-z-kalshi-kxchamptour-ini26-zjoh |
| Alex Cejka | 3¢ | — | $31 | kalshi | /markets/will-alex-cejka-win-the-insperity-invitational-ale-kalshi-kxchamptour-ini26-acej |
| Bernhard Langer | 3¢ | — | $31 | kalshi | /markets/will-bernhard-langer-win-the-insperity-invitationa-kalshi-kxchamptour-ini26-blan |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | 15 |
| 2026-05-07 | 16 |
| 2026-05-08 | 7 |
| 2026-05-09 | 10 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Stewart Cink +14pp 15→29¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · Zach Johnson +5pp 2→7¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The 24% probability indicates that market participants assess Bernhard Langer as having roughly a one-in-four chance of winning the Regions Tradition, a PGA Tour Champions event. This probability reflects expectations about Langer's competitive form relative to other senior golfers in the field. Key drivers of this assessment include Langer's recent tournament performance and consistency on the Champions Tour, as well as the strength of competing players in the tournament. The primary catalyst for updating this probability will be the actual tournament outcome when the Regions Tradition is played. Market participants are pricing in both Langer's historical track record in similar events and current conditions heading into the competition.

### Key factors

- Bernhard Langer's recent finishes and scoring averages in PGA Tour Champions events in 2026
- The number and caliber of other contenders entered in the specific Regions Tradition field
- Historical head-to-head performance data between Langer and likely competitors in senior tour events
- Course conditions and format specifics of the Regions Tradition venue for the 2026 edition
- Any recent injuries, withdrawals, or changes in playing status affecting Langer or key competitors

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/champtour
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=champtour

## License

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