# Charlton Athletic FC vs. Ipswich Town FC

> Closed. Final outcome: yes. Last odds frozen 4 d ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/charlton-athletic-fc-vs-ipswich-town-fc
Updated: 2026-05-05T01:50:36.253Z
Category: general
Status: resolved
Closes: 2026-05-22

## Headline

- Probability: 95% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $30
- Resolved: yes

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich Town | 95¢ | +13pp | $30 | kalshi | /markets/will-ipswich-town-be-promoted-from-the-efl-champio-kalshi-kxeflpromo-26-ips |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 10 |
| 2026-04-25 | 7 |
| 2026-05-02 | 84 |

_18 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Ipswich Town +13pp 71→84¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 87% probability reflects market expectations that Ipswich Town will achieve promotion from the EFL Championship during the 2025-26 season. The high confidence reflects Ipswich's competitive position and squad strength relative to other Championship clubs. The probability could shift based on their remaining fixtures, injury status of key players, and performance in head-to-head matchups against other promotion contenders. The season concludes in May 2026, which will definitively resolve whether Ipswich finishes in the top two automatic promotion places or the playoff positions. Between now and season end, critical matches against direct rivals and their points accumulation trajectory will be the primary data points affecting market pricing.

### Key factors

- Ipswich's current league position and points total relative to the automatic promotion threshold and playoff positions as of early May 2026
- Performance in remaining fixtures against fellow promotion contenders and teams near the relegation zone
- Availability and form of key squad players, particularly any significant injuries affecting their starting lineup
- Head-to-head results in Championship matches directly against other clubs competing for promotion spots
- The mathematical path to promotion: whether 87% pricing aligns with their points needed versus realistic scenarios in remaining matches

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/charlton-athletic-fc-vs-ipswich-town-fc
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=charlton-athletic-fc-vs-ipswich-town-fc

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.