# Will China inflation rate YoY for April 2026 be above 0.6%

> Closed. Final outcome: Above 0.5%. Last odds frozen 13 d ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/chcpiyoy
Updated: 2026-05-12T00:50:29.072Z
Category: economy · Topic: recession
Status: resolved
Closes: 2026-05-11

## Headline

- Leader: Above 0.4% at 97%
- Runner-up: Above 0.6% at 95%
- Outcomes: 12 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (12 contracts)
- 24h volume: $6K
- Resolved: Above 0.5%

## Bound contracts (12)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 0.4% | 97¢ | +7pp | $378 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-inflation-rate-yoy-for-april-2026-be-ab-kalshi-kxchcpiyoy-26may10-t0.4 |
| Above 0.6% | 95¢ | −7pp | $365 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-inflation-rate-yoy-for-april-2026-be-ab-kalshi-kxchcpiyoy-26may10-t0.6 |
| Above 0.7% | 87¢ | +7pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-china-inflation-rate-yoy-for-april-2026-be-ab-kalshi-kxchcpiyoy-26may10-t0.7 |
| Above 0.8% | 84¢ | −3pp | $759 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-inflation-rate-yoy-for-april-2026-be-ab-kalshi-kxchcpiyoy-26may10-t0.8 |
| Above 1.0% | 65¢ | +34pp | $76 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-inflation-rate-yoy-for-april-2026-be-ab-kalshi-kxchcpiyoy-26may10-t1.0 |
| Above 0.9% | 49¢ | +7pp | $220 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-inflation-rate-yoy-for-april-2026-be-ab-kalshi-kxchcpiyoy-26may10-t0.9 |
| Above 1.1% | 41¢ | +33pp | $338 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-inflation-rate-yoy-for-april-2026-be-ab-kalshi-kxchcpiyoy-26may10-t1.1 |
| Above 0.3% | 38¢ | +1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-china-inflation-rate-yoy-for-april-2026-be-ab-kalshi-kxchcpiyoy-26may10-t0.3 |
| Above 1.2% | 16¢ | +12pp | $55 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-inflation-rate-yoy-for-april-2026-be-ab-kalshi-kxchcpiyoy-26may10-t1.2 |
| Above 0.5% | 15¢ | −5pp | $40 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-inflation-rate-yoy-for-april-2026-be-ab-kalshi-kxchcpiyoy-26may10-t0.5 |
| Above 1.3% | 6¢ | +1pp | $129 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-inflation-rate-yoy-for-april-2026-be-ab-kalshi-kxchcpiyoy-26may10-t1.3 |
| Above 0.2% | 4¢ | −23pp | $357 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-inflation-rate-yoy-for-april-2026-be-ab-kalshi-kxchcpiyoy-26may10-t0.2 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 0.4% | Above 0.6% | Above 0.7% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-08 | 51 | 48 | 47 |
| 2026-05-09 | 90 | — | 70 |
| 2026-05-10 | 86 | 18 | 58 |
| 2026-05-11 | 93 | 11 | 65 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This measures whether China's year-over-year inflation rate for April 2026 will exceed 0.6%. Markets currently price this at 97%, indicating traders believe inflation is very likely to clear this threshold. The contract structure reveals confidence in low but positive inflation: markets give 93% odds for 0.4% inflation and 46% odds for 0.9%, suggesting expectations cluster in the 0.3–0.8% range. Resolution depends on China's National Bureau of Statistics releasing April CPI data, typically in early May. Key drivers include domestic demand recovery, food price movements, energy costs, and policy stimulus measures. The steep probability gradient across thresholds (97% at 0.1% down to 46% at 0.9%) indicates genuine uncertainty about whether inflation will remain subdued or accelerate toward 1%, rather than consensus on the outcome itself.

### Key factors

- April 2026 CPI release date and actual reported figure from China's National Bureau of Statistics determines final outcome
- Recent inflation trajectory through February–March 2026 would inform expectations about April's print
- Commodity price movements (oil, metals) between late March and April 2026 affect input costs and inflation momentum
- Policy stimulus or monetary tightening announced in Q1–Q2 2026 influences consumer and producer prices in reported period
- Food prices (seasonal agricultural supply) and energy costs typically drive 60–70% of YoY CPI variance in China

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/chcpiyoy
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=chcpiyoy
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/recession

## License

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