# Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 34% across 20 contracts — refreshed 7 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/chengdu-rongcheng-fc-vs-zhejiang-zhiye-fc
Updated: 2026-05-03T13:20:10.257Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Probability: 34% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $811

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liaoning Tieren FC | 16¢ | +1pp | $392 | polymarket | /markets/liaoning-tieren-fc-vs-chengdu-rongcheng-fc-liaonin-polymarket-0x76793744c55b6f396dfdf0e4eab54c2c1218d025b5f56e00a0f5c6bd834c230b |
| Liaoning Tieren FC (-2.5) | 3¢ | −6pp | $306 | polymarket | /markets/liaoning-tieren-fc-vs-chengdu-rongcheng-fc-more-ma-polymarket-0xeacd4b74856bcd1deffd3d1fa8f946524095752c552907e53b59734bfd8c9c9e |
| Chengdu Rongcheng FC | 61¢ | −4pp | $73 | polymarket | /markets/liaoning-tieren-fc-vs-chengdu-rongcheng-fc-chengdu-polymarket-0x6c60acc50474a4a4c0433599ebd0985ed84a4bed0c3c704107cd5ed0c366e575 |
| Yunnan Yukun FC | 44¢ | −5pp | $21 | polymarket | /markets/yunnan-yukun-fc-vs-zhejiang-zhiye-fc-yunnan-yukun-polymarket-0xf9ca096b6783bdd500542fe820f5090003208d58a40be876e0e6c2800fd79d93 |
| O/U 2.5 | 62¢ | — | $9 | polymarket | /markets/yunnan-yukun-fc-vs-zhejiang-zhiye-fc-more-markets-polymarket-0xc6f8d09a9355a2998d4b5bd2319c8cef45cdb5936c1c335f76a41462f661d7bf |
| O/U 2.5 | 53¢ | −1pp | $9 | polymarket | /markets/liaoning-tieren-fc-vs-chengdu-rongcheng-fc-more-ma-polymarket-0x2651198ee21da63ab9659c2340246270878006e0d2e196e97b422ff660a2772e |
| O/U 1.5 | 78¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/liaoning-tieren-fc-vs-chengdu-rongcheng-fc-more-ma-polymarket-0x796d0b933764a3bc48b0009b04375a6c9c1224a834fa760e6f521695f86e4310 |
| O/U 3.5 | 31¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/liaoning-tieren-fc-vs-chengdu-rongcheng-fc-more-ma-polymarket-0x82156713db504fa2705c1ff9ce5c00f07f9e142ed44f3c47d645161336c577e8 |
| Both Teams to Score | 51¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/liaoning-tieren-fc-vs-chengdu-rongcheng-fc-more-ma-polymarket-0xd79dfebaca45de486c711df7ef97657def0ff910ce0302f037b71716deb6f845 |
| Draw (Yunnan Yukun FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC) | 25¢ | −5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/yunnan-yukun-fc-vs-zhejiang-zhiye-fc-draw-yunnan-y-polymarket-0xe3c328d24859ed8fef392dfccc259670187330299c27f2a046d2166ce150a6ac |
| O/U 3.5 | 40¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/yunnan-yukun-fc-vs-zhejiang-zhiye-fc-more-markets-polymarket-0xc0a65a196c5efad06f4fd9c9537c9e0c42121143372351476e84c69757d72079 |
| Liaoning Tieren FC (-1.5) | 5¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/liaoning-tieren-fc-vs-chengdu-rongcheng-fc-more-ma-polymarket-0x1da10fb00a9e9cf7001b543bdc336af0cd1b788456be443cc5955b3f7f30ed87 |
| Chengdu Rongcheng FC (-2.5) | 15¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/liaoning-tieren-fc-vs-chengdu-rongcheng-fc-more-ma-polymarket-0x45e030f23009132654bc0587068797b39b2abc38de5613ea77ad712c63f5a07f |
| O/U 4.5 | 14¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/liaoning-tieren-fc-vs-chengdu-rongcheng-fc-more-ma-polymarket-0x691544e2f6cbc85be5e0a5bf08bd8c7f51c2a8d2b626d6f63dafb62360616208 |
| Both Teams to Score | 65¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/yunnan-yukun-fc-vs-zhejiang-zhiye-fc-more-markets-polymarket-0xf85773b4b73fc50ed80dd7464281c34f89de7e6e205ce22e0b1ec2d63eca31fe |
| Zhejiang Zhiye FC (-1.5) | 15¢ | +16pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/yunnan-yukun-fc-vs-zhejiang-zhiye-fc-more-markets-polymarket-0xeeea9ee52bac5c83aa862aa2ac7e5a8db93a2b973522a399f31d3ef074942ed8 |
| Chengdu Rongcheng FC (-1.5) | 34¢ | −3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/liaoning-tieren-fc-vs-chengdu-rongcheng-fc-more-ma-polymarket-0x069e2b9a3e65104909d365470d3ce07fd6b91dea5136ddd36b172f02fa91e280 |
| Yunnan Yukun FC (-2.5) | 13¢ | +10pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/yunnan-yukun-fc-vs-zhejiang-zhiye-fc-more-markets-polymarket-0x869a6a92cc25ea92e6a28ab539c75138d485be5003e26a811538a9060aa34522 |
| Zhejiang Zhiye FC | 31¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/yunnan-yukun-fc-vs-zhejiang-zhiye-fc-zhejiang-zhiy-polymarket-0xd6f0e5edf9621f531aa8a14e8130445aaf8cc4c629fa15524dd67b91cbe256f3 |
| Draw (Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC) | 24¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/liaoning-tieren-fc-vs-chengdu-rongcheng-fc-draw-li-polymarket-0x096646db8f7006d0da79d4f8c4d8f55be3e78c5a0af9ae49a6b2978a264bef18 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 37 |
| 2026-05-02 | 34 |
| 2026-05-03 | 34 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Zhejiang Zhiye FC (-1.5) +16pp 17→33¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Chengdu Rongcheng FC (-2.5) −10pp 32→22¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Yunnan Yukun FC (-2.5) +10pp 14→24¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Liaoning Tieren FC −9pp 25→16¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Liaoning Tieren FC (-2.5) −6pp 12→6¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability represents an expectation that Chengdu Rongcheng FC will win against Zhejiang Zhiye FC at 56%, slightly favoring the home or traditionally stronger side. The prediction relies on limited market depth, with most trading volume concentrated in related Liaoning Tieren FC contracts rather than direct Chengdu-Zhejiang matchups. The market would shift based on recent team form, injury reports, and head-to-head historical performance between these Chinese Super League clubs. Resolution depends on the scheduled match result; key uncertainties include current league standings, each team's recent wins/losses, and any lineup changes announced closer to game day. Higher trading volume and more direct market contracts would provide greater confidence in the 56% figure.

### Key factors

- Limited direct market liquidity for this specific matchup, with most volume in tangential Liaoning Tieren contracts, reducing confidence in the probability estimate
- Recent competitive form and league standings of both Chengdu Rongcheng FC and Zhejiang Zhiye FC at the time of match
- Head-to-head historical record and performance metrics between these two clubs in previous seasons
- Injury status and roster changes for key players announced in the days before the scheduled fixture
- Goal-scoring averages and defensive records for both teams in current season play

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

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- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=chengdu-rongcheng-fc-vs-zhejiang-zhiye-fc

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