# Who will be the #1 chess player according to the May 2026 FIDE World Top Players (top 100 players) Standard Rating List

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 26% across 20 contracts — refreshed 6 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/chessfiderating
Updated: 2026-05-03T17:20:51.534Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2029-11-07

## Headline

- Probability: 26% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 27% / Polymarket 6% — 21pp spread
- 24h volume: $246K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JB Bickerstaff | 3¢ | ±0 | $85K | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-coach-of-the-year-jb-bickerstaff-kalshi-kxnbacoy-26-jbic |
| Steve Hilton | 10¢ | +1pp | $42K | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-governorship-in-california-steve-kalshi-kxgovca-26-shil |
| Joe Mazzulla | 95¢ | ±0 | $32K | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-coach-of-the-year-joe-mazzulla-kalshi-kxnbacoy-26-jmaz |
| Avigdor Lieberman | 6¢ | +1pp | $21K | polymarket | /markets/who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-afte-polymarket-0xadffc96f54f350b3655f72fe2853c81bfd705e9703f62469e6a14782ad5d4ec0 |
| Chad Bianco | 4¢ | ±0 | $19K | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-governorship-in-california-chad-b-kalshi-kxgovca-26-cbia |
| Kamala Harris | 5¢ | +1pp | $10K | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-next-presidential-election-kamala-kalshi-kxpresperson-28-khar |
| Mike Vrabel | 78¢ | +2pp | $10K | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-the-head-coach-of-new-england-for-week-kalshi-kxcoachondate-ne26-mvra |
| Gavin Newsom | 16¢ | +1pp | $7K | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-next-presidential-election-gavin-kalshi-kxpresperson-28-gnews |
| Andy Beshear | 4¢ | −1pp | $6K | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-next-presidential-election-andy-b-kalshi-kxpresperson-28-abes |
| Tom Steyer | 40¢ | −2pp | $5K | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-governorship-in-california-tom-st-kalshi-kxgovca-26-tste |
| J.D. Vance | 18¢ | −1pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-next-presidential-election-jd-van-kalshi-kxpresperson-28-jvan |
| Xavier Becerra | 37¢ | −2pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-governorship-in-california-xavier-kalshi-kxgovca-26-xbec |
| Katie Porter | 4¢ | ±0 | $2K | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-governorship-in-california-katie-kalshi-kxgovca-26-kpor |
| Erling Haaland | 19¢ | −5pp | $900 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-players-player-of-the-year-erling-haa-kalshi-kxpfapoy-2526-ehaa |
| Bruno Fernandes | 62¢ | −14pp | $635 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-players-player-of-the-year-bruno-fern-kalshi-kxpfapoy-2526-bfer |
| Declan Rice | 11¢ | +5pp | $99 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-players-player-of-the-year-declan-ric-kalshi-kxpfapoy-2526-dric |
| Carlos Alcaraz | 5¢ | +4pp | $98 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-the-1-ranked-atp-mens-singles-player-o-kalshi-kxatp1rank-26jun30-calc |
| Jannik Sinner | 89¢ | +9pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-the-1-ranked-atp-mens-singles-player-o-kalshi-kxatp1rank-26dec31-jsin |
| Daniil Medvedev | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-the-1-ranked-atp-mens-singles-player-o-kalshi-kxatp1rank-26dec31-dmed |
| Carlos Alcaraz | 6¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-the-1-ranked-atp-mens-singles-player-o-kalshi-kxatp1rank-26dec31-calc |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 27 |
| 2026-04-19 | 30 |
| 2026-04-26 | 29 |
| 2026-05-03 | 27 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-29 · Bruno Fernandes +17pp 33→50¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-26 · Erling Haaland −15pp 33→18¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Bruno Fernandes −14pp 43→29¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-27 · Jannik Sinner +9pp 80→89¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-28 · Mike Vrabel +8pp 68→76¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects the likelihood that a single player will hold the highest standard rating on the May 2026 FIDE World Top Players list. The 24% probability suggests meaningful uncertainty about rating leadership despite recent dominance patterns in elite chess. The market's assessment likely reflects two competing forces: the typical stability of the #1 ranking among top players with rating gaps of 10-15 points, versus recent volatility in the elite chess landscape where multiple players have held the top spot. The May 2026 FIDE rating list publication will definitively resolve this market, with no interim data releases changing the outcome. Players trade wins and losses in classical tournaments throughout the rating period, gradually shifting their ratings up or down relative to peers.

### Key factors

- Current May 2026 FIDE standard rating list composition and the specific player currently rated #1
- Rating distribution gap between the top-ranked player and second place, with larger margins suggesting greater stability
- Classical tournament results and rating changes across the elite chess field during the 2024-2026 rating period
- Whether recent #1 players have maintained competitive tournament activity or taken extended breaks affecting rating momentum
- The specific title holder's historical rating volatility and head-to-head performance against other top-10 players

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/chessfiderating
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=chessfiderating

## License

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