# Will Vincent Keymer be rated top 10 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in June 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 75% across 15 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/chessfideratingtop
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:40.336Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-07

## Headline

- Probability: 75% (liquidity-weighted across 15 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (15 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (15)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magnus Carlsen | 96¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-magnus-carlsen-be-rated-top-5-on-the-fide-wor-kalshi-kxchessfideratingtop-26junt5-mcar |
| Hikaru Nakamura | 96¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-hikaru-nakamura-be-rated-top-5-on-the-fide-wo-kalshi-kxchessfideratingtop-26junt5-hnak |
| Fabiano Caruana | 93¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-fabiano-caruana-be-rated-top-5-on-the-fide-wo-kalshi-kxchessfideratingtop-26junt5-fcar |
| Nodirbek Abdusattorov | 95¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-nodirbek-abdusattorov-be-rated-top-5-on-the-f-kalshi-kxchessfideratingtop-26junt5-nabd |
| Anish Giri | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-anish-giri-be-rated-top-5-on-the-fide-world-t-kalshi-kxchessfideratingtop-26junt5-agir |
| Javokhir Sindarov | 93¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-javokhir-sindarov-be-rated-top-5-on-the-fide-kalshi-kxchessfideratingtop-26junt5-jsin |
| Nodirbek Abdusattorov | 96¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-nodirbek-abdusattorov-be-rated-top-10-on-the-kalshi-kxchessfideratingtop-26junt10-nabd |
| Vincent Keymer | 76¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-vincent-keymer-be-rated-top-10-on-the-fide-wo-kalshi-kxchessfideratingtop-26junt10-vkey |
| Alireza Firouzja | 83¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-alireza-firouzja-be-rated-top-10-on-the-fide-kalshi-kxchessfideratingtop-26junt10-afir |
| Wesley So | 46¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-wesley-so-be-rated-top-10-on-the-fide-world-t-kalshi-kxchessfideratingtop-26junt10-wso |
| Wei Yi | 50¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-wei-yi-be-rated-top-10-on-the-fide-world-top-kalshi-kxchessfideratingtop-26junt10-weyi |
| Anish Giri | 95¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-anish-giri-be-rated-top-10-on-the-fide-world-kalshi-kxchessfideratingtop-26junt10-agir |
| Arjun Erigaisi | 95¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-arjun-erigaisi-be-rated-top-10-on-the-fide-wo-kalshi-kxchessfideratingtop-26junt10-aeri |
| Javokhir Sindarov | 95¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-javokhir-sindarov-be-rated-top-10-on-the-fide-kalshi-kxchessfideratingtop-26junt10-jsin |
| Hans Moke Niemann | 11¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-hans-moke-niemann-be-rated-top-10-on-the-fide-kalshi-kxchessfideratingtop-26junt10-hmok |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | 93 |
| 2026-05-07 | 51 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability indicates an 82% chance that Vincent Keymer will appear in the top 10 of FIDE's standard rating list for June 2026. Keymer's current trajectory and recent performance results drive the high confidence level, with his rating position relatively stable near the threshold. The main factors affecting this probability are tournament results between now and the rating list's publication in June, which could either reinforce his top-10 status or push him lower if he underperforms or faces stiff competition from rising players. The June 2026 FIDE rating list publication will definitively resolve this contract, making recent tournament outcomes and rating trends the primary indicators of movement.

### Key factors

- Keymer's current FIDE rating and ranking relative to the 10th-place threshold
- Tournament results and rating changes for Keymer between May and June 2026
- Performance of other players competing for top-10 positions who could displace him
- Rating volatility of players near the top 10 who might move above or below Keymer
- The timing and results of major tournaments scheduled before the June rating list publication

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/chessfideratingtop
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=chessfideratingtop

## License

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