# Will India win the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 23% across 4 contracts — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/chessolympiad
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:50:38.343Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-10-15

## Headline

- Probability: 23% (liquidity-weighted across 4 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| India | 28¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-india-win-the-46th-fide-chess-olympiad-open-t-kalshi-kxchessolympiad-26-ind |
| United States of America | 30¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-united-states-of-america-win-the-46th-fide-ch-kalshi-kxchessolympiad-26-usa |
| Uzbekistan | 28¢ | +19pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-uzbekistan-win-the-46th-fide-chess-olympiad-o-kalshi-kxchessolympiad-26-uzb |
| China | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-win-the-46th-fide-chess-olympiad-open-t-kalshi-kxchessolympiad-26-chn |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-28 | 12 |
| 2026-04-29 | 28 |
| 2026-05-01 | 29 |
| 2026-05-07 | 30 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This market estimates a 31% probability that India's chess team will win the Open section of the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad, scheduled for 2026. The current odds reflect India's strong but not dominant position in international team chess, where historical performance, current player ratings, and field composition typically determine outcomes. The main factors supporting this probability are India's recent improvements in team strength and Elo ratings, though they face established competitors like China, Russia (if eligible), and the United States. The probability could shift significantly based on the final tournament pairings, the performance of top-ranked Indian players in the months leading up to competition, and withdrawals or absences of rival nations. Resolution will occur in late 2026 or early 2027 when the tournament concludes.

### Key factors

- India's average team Elo rating relative to other national teams competing in the Open section
- Recent performance trends of India's top players in classical chess competitions during 2025-2026
- Whether strong chess nations with comparable or higher historical Olympiad success rates participate in this edition
- Tournament format and pairing rules, which can affect outcomes for teams in the 5-10 seed range
- Availability and form of India's core players (particularly those rated 2700+ FIDE) immediately before the event

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/chessolympiad
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=chessolympiad

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.