# Will Fabiano Caruana be selected to the United States team for the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 62% across 7 contracts — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/chessolympiadusa
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:50:41.932Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-09-29

## Headline

- Probability: 62% (liquidity-weighted across 7 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $699

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hikaru Nakamura | 76¢ | −6pp | $600 | kalshi | /markets/will-hikaru-nakamura-be-selected-to-the-united-sta-kalshi-kxchessolympiadusa-26-hnak |
| Hans Niemann | 75¢ | +2pp | $99 | kalshi | /markets/will-hans-niemann-be-selected-to-the-united-states-kalshi-kxchessolympiadusa-26-hnie |
| Levon Aronian | 86¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-levon-aronian-be-selected-to-the-united-state-kalshi-kxchessolympiadusa-26-laro |
| Wesley So | 86¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-wesley-so-be-selected-to-the-united-states-te-kalshi-kxchessolympiadusa-26-wso |
| Leinier Domínguez Pérez | 21¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-leinier-domnguez-prez-be-selected-to-the-unit-kalshi-kxchessolympiadusa-26-ldom |
| Awonder Liang | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-awonder-liang-be-selected-to-the-united-state-kalshi-kxchessolympiadusa-26-alia |
| Fabiano Caruana | 86¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-fabiano-caruana-be-selected-to-the-united-sta-kalshi-kxchessolympiadusa-26-fcar |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | 69 |
| 2026-05-07 | 82 |
| 2026-05-08 | 70 |
| 2026-05-09 | 74 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-09 · Hikaru Nakamura −6pp 82→76¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/chessolympiadusa
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=chessolympiadusa

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.