# Will China exports YoY for April 2026 be above 12%

> Closed. Final outcome: Above 6%. Last odds frozen 15 d ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/chexports
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:44.677Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: china
Status: resolved

## Headline

- Leader: Above -4% at 97%
- Runner-up: Above -2% at 96%
- Outcomes: 13 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (13 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K
- Resolved: Above 6%

## Bound contracts (13)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above -4% | 97¢ | — | $759 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-exports-yoy-for-april-2026-be-above-4-a-kalshi-kxchexports-26may08-t-4 |
| Above -2% | 96¢ | — | $346 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-exports-yoy-for-april-2026-be-above-2-a-kalshi-kxchexports-26may08-t-2 |
| Above 2% | 95¢ | +21pp | $50 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-exports-yoy-for-april-2026-be-above-2-a-kalshi-kxchexports-26may08-t2 |
| Above 0% | 93¢ | — | $49 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-exports-yoy-for-april-2026-be-above-0-a-kalshi-kxchexports-26may08-t0 |
| Above 4% | 93¢ | — | $25 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-exports-yoy-for-april-2026-be-above-4-a-kalshi-kxchexports-26may08-t4 |
| Above 6% | 19¢ | −11pp | $19 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-exports-yoy-for-april-2026-be-above-6-a-kalshi-kxchexports-26may08-t6 |
| Above 8% | 18¢ | −10pp | $202 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-exports-yoy-for-april-2026-be-above-8-a-kalshi-kxchexports-26may08-t8 |
| Above 12% | 14¢ | +5pp | $241 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-exports-yoy-for-april-2026-be-above-12-kalshi-kxchexports-26may08-t12 |
| Above 10% | 10¢ | +2pp | $125 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-exports-yoy-for-april-2026-be-above-10-kalshi-kxchexports-26may08-t10 |
| Above 14% | 8¢ | ±0 | $383 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-exports-yoy-for-april-2026-be-above-14-kalshi-kxchexports-26may08-t14 |
| Above 16% | 3¢ | — | $27 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-exports-yoy-for-april-2026-be-above-16-kalshi-kxchexports-26may08-t16 |
| Above 20% | 3¢ | −8pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-exports-yoy-for-april-2026-be-above-20-kalshi-kxchexports-26may08-t20 |
| Above 18% | 3¢ | — | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-exports-yoy-for-april-2026-be-above-18-kalshi-kxchexports-26may08-t18 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above -4% | Above -2% | Above 2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-08 | 78 | 84 | 74 |
| 2026-05-09 | — | — | 95 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/chexports
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=chexports
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/china

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.