# Will China GDP growth rate YoY for Q2 2026 be above 3.4%

> Above 3.8% leads at 90%, runner-up 90% across 9 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/chgdpyoy
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:23.089Z
Category: economy · Topic: recession
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-15

## Headline

- Leader: Above 3.8% at 90%
- Runner-up: Above 4.0% at 90%
- Outcomes: 9 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3.8% | 90¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-gdp-growth-rate-yoy-for-q2-2026-be-abov-kalshi-kxchgdpyoy-26jul15-t3.8 |
| Above 4.0% | 90¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-gdp-growth-rate-yoy-for-q2-2026-be-abov-kalshi-kxchgdpyoy-26jul15-t4.0 |
| Above 4.2% | 87¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-gdp-growth-rate-yoy-for-q2-2026-be-abov-kalshi-kxchgdpyoy-26jul15-t4.2 |
| Above 4.4% | 86¢ | +28pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-gdp-growth-rate-yoy-for-q2-2026-be-abov-kalshi-kxchgdpyoy-26jul15-t4.4 |
| Above 4.6% | 60¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-gdp-growth-rate-yoy-for-q2-2026-be-abov-kalshi-kxchgdpyoy-26jul15-t4.6 |
| Above 4.8% | 36¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-gdp-growth-rate-yoy-for-q2-2026-be-abov-kalshi-kxchgdpyoy-26jul15-t4.8 |
| Above 5.0% | 24¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-gdp-growth-rate-yoy-for-q2-2026-be-abov-kalshi-kxchgdpyoy-26jul15-t5.0 |
| Above 5.2% | 15¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-gdp-growth-rate-yoy-for-q2-2026-be-abov-kalshi-kxchgdpyoy-26jul15-t5.2 |
| Above 5.4% | 7¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-gdp-growth-rate-yoy-for-q2-2026-be-abov-kalshi-kxchgdpyoy-26jul15-t5.4 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 3.8% | Above 4.0% | Above 4.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | 47 | 60 | 60 |
| 2026-04-28 | 90 | — | 87 |
| 2026-04-29 | 90 | 89 | 87 |
| 2026-05-06 | — | 90 | — |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Above 4.8% +3pp 33→36¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates a 45% chance that China's year-over-year GDP growth will exceed 3.4% in the second quarter of 2026. China's recent growth trajectory and policy responses will be primary drivers: stronger-than-expected domestic consumption or investment could push probabilities higher, while external headwinds or domestic credit contraction could lower them. The resolution depends on China's official GDP announcement for Q2 2026, typically released in mid-July. Market uncertainty reflects ongoing debates about the sustainability of China's growth momentum amid structural economic challenges and global trade dynamics. The current 45% probability suggests roughly even odds between exceeding and falling short of the 3.4% threshold, indicating meaningful disagreement among traders about near-term economic momentum.

### Key factors

- China's Q1 2026 GDP growth rate and official statistics released prior to Q2 final figures will establish the baseline trend
- Real estate sector performance and credit dynamics in the first half of 2026, including property sales and investment levels
- External factors including global trade conditions, export demand, and any trade policy changes affecting Chinese manufacturing and exports
- Domestic consumption indicators such as retail sales growth and services activity in Q2 relative to historical seasonal patterns
- Comparison to analyst consensus forecasts and prior official guidance from Chinese economic authorities on full-year growth targets

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/chgdpyoy
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=chgdpyoy
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/recession

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.