# Chicago Fire FC vs. FC Cincinnati - More Markets

> Closed. Last odds frozen 1 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/chicago-fire-fc-vs-fc-cincinnati-more-markets
Updated: 2026-05-07T06:35:43.886Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Probability: 44% (liquidity-weighted across 7 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $906

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5) | 9¢ | −20pp | $384 | polymarket | /markets/kawasaki-frontale-vs-tky-verdy-more-markets-tky-ve-polymarket-0x2ae2ebd1fd8f36dee4140d1e5d50addade8319b01b9486d126f98e2e54d468c8 |
| O/U 2.5 | 64¢ | — | $254 | polymarket | /markets/beijing-guoan-fc-vs-dalian-yingbo-fc-more-markets-polymarket-0xd0a2f0efd684af9051d535ebfb688b7037a3996508900509e3edc8d229d702d4 |
| O/U 2.5 | 66¢ | +9pp | $134 | polymarket | /markets/yunnan-yukun-fc-vs-zhejiang-zhiye-fc-more-markets-polymarket-0xc6f8d09a9355a2998d4b5bd2319c8cef45cdb5936c1c335f76a41462f661d7bf |
| O/U 2.5 | 53¢ | — | $82 | polymarket | /markets/wuhan-san-zhen-fc-vs-qingdao-hainiu-fc-more-market-polymarket-0x4612ca5173a5a4fcf85507aeb04a8592bc10dda7e82aa160ccf2a48ee08c3182 |
| O/U 2.5 | 57¢ | — | $28 | polymarket | /markets/shanghai-haigang-fc-vs-shenzhen-xinpengcheng-fc-mo-polymarket-0x64562d2a13d04c9e590ca640c26a2f7cce42de7a8e7a0056e3ffc7c4226092f6 |
| O/U 3.5 | 19¢ | −20pp | $24 | polymarket | /markets/vanraure-hachinohe-fc-vs-shnan-bellmre-more-market-polymarket-0xf8c9058bc3f1c77e39ed03a30a3df9c41a377d75a71ad86ff20ff5167bf086be |
| Punjab FC (-1.5) | 39¢ | −3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/punjab-fc-vs-chennaiyin-fc-more-markets-punjab-fc-polymarket-0xea81e11adacd16d06cc52afd8e83cd1864dc58b62135f7e7931fbb9b70da2c80 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 38 |
| 2026-05-02 | 42 |
| 2026-05-03 | 33 |
| 2026-05-06 | 38 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5) −20pp 26→6¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · O/U 3.5 −20pp 40→20¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · O/U 2.5 +9pp 62→71¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Punjab FC (-1.5) −3pp 37→34¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 44% probability represents the aggregate expectation across prediction markets that Chicago Fire FC will defeat FC Cincinnati in their upcoming match. The midpoint reflects balanced uncertainty between two competitive MLS teams. The current level suggests markets view this as a closely contested game with neither side commanding strong favorites status. Key drivers of movement would include recent team form, injury reports for key players, head-to-head records, and home/away advantage considerations. The match result will definitively resolve this uncertainty once the game concludes, making pre-match team news and lineup confirmations the primary catalysts that could shift expectations in either direction before kickoff.

### Key factors

- Recent win-loss records and goal differential for both teams over their last 5-10 matches
- Availability status of star players or key position players due to injury or suspension for either squad
- Historical head-to-head match results between Chicago Fire and FC Cincinnati
- Home field advantage and venue-specific performance data for Chicago Fire at their stadium
- Current league standings and playoff positioning implications that might affect team motivation

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/chicago-fire-fc-vs-fc-cincinnati-more-markets
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=chicago-fire-fc-vs-fc-cincinnati-more-markets

## License

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