# Chicago Fire FC vs. FC Cincinnati

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 42% across 17 contracts — refreshed 5 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/chicago-fire-fc-vs-fc-cincinnati
Updated: 2026-05-03T16:50:51.206Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-08-31

## Headline

- Probability: 42% (liquidity-weighted across 17 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 42% / Polymarket 32% — 10pp spread
- 24h volume: $791

## Bound contracts (17)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati | 35¢ | +11pp | $285 | kalshi | /markets/cincinnati-vs-chicago-c-winner-cincinnati-kalshi-kxmlbgame-26may041940cinchc-cin |
| Chicago C | 60¢ | — | $276 | kalshi | /markets/cincinnati-vs-chicago-c-winner-chicago-c-kalshi-kxmlbgame-26may041940cinchc-chc |
| Chicago Fire | 56¢ | +27pp | $137 | kalshi | /markets/chicago-fire-vs-new-york-rb-winner-chicago-fire-kalshi-kxmlsgame-26may09chinyrb-chi |
| New York RB | 17¢ | +9pp | $39 | kalshi | /markets/chicago-fire-vs-new-york-rb-winner-new-york-rb-kalshi-kxmlsgame-26may09chinyrb-nyrb |
| Cincinnati | 39¢ | — | $37 | kalshi | /markets/cincinnati-vs-chicago-c-winner-cincinnati-kalshi-kxmlbgame-26may051940cinchc-cin |
| Tie | 18¢ | −2pp | $17 | kalshi | /markets/chicago-fire-vs-new-york-rb-winner-tie-kalshi-kxmlsgame-26may09chinyrb-tie |
| Chicago C | 54¢ | — | $1 | kalshi | /markets/cincinnati-vs-chicago-c-winner-chicago-c-kalshi-kxmlbgame-26may051940cinchc-chc |
| Both Teams to Score: Both Teams To Score | 60¢ | −6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/new-york-rb-at-chicago-fire-both-teams-to-score-bo-kalshi-kxmlsbtts-26may09chinyrb |
| Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored | 61¢ | +44pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/new-york-rb-at-chicago-fire-totals-over-25-goals-s-kalshi-kxmlstotal-26may09chinyrb-2 |
| Totals: Over 4.5 goals scored | 21¢ | +10pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/new-york-rb-at-chicago-fire-totals-over-45-goals-s-kalshi-kxmlstotal-26may09chinyrb-4 |
| Yes | 49¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/cincinnati-vs-chicago-c-first-inning-run-yes-kalshi-kxmlbrfi-26may051940cinchc |
| Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored | 79¢ | +56pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/new-york-rb-at-chicago-fire-totals-over-15-goals-s-kalshi-kxmlstotal-26may09chinyrb-1 |
| Yes | 44¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/cincinnati-vs-chicago-c-first-inning-run-yes-kalshi-kxmlbrfi-26may041940cinchc |
| Chicago Fire wins by over 2.5 goals | 10¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/chicago-fire-wins-by-over-25-goals-chicago-fire-wi-kalshi-kxmlsspread-26may09chinyrb-chi2 |
| Totals: Over 3.5 goals scored | 39¢ | +25pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/new-york-rb-at-chicago-fire-totals-over-35-goals-s-kalshi-kxmlstotal-26may09chinyrb-3 |
| Chicago Fire FC | 32¢ | −6pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-club-will-cristiano-ronaldo-play-for-next-ch-polymarket-0x7eb1f92972a01f0f574a535c4360a51cb413bb4c95a8615b95b6bd9f3b55fb5a |
| Chicago Fire wins by over 1.5 goals | 33¢ | +27pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/chicago-fire-wins-by-over-15-goals-chicago-fire-wi-kalshi-kxmlsspread-26may09chinyrb-chi1 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-28 | 33 |
| 2026-05-03 | 34 |

_6 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored +56pp 12→68¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored +44pp 6→50¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Chicago Fire +27pp 24→51¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Chicago Fire wins by over 1.5 goals +27pp 2→29¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Totals: Over 3.5 goals scored +25pp 7→32¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/chicago-fire-fc-vs-fc-cincinnati
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=chicago-fire-fc-vs-fc-cincinnati

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.