# Chicago Fire FC vs. Sporting Kansas City - More Markets

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 23% across 6 contracts — refreshed 23 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/chicago-fire-fc-vs-sporting-kansas-city-more-markets
Updated: 2026-06-25T21:20:50.539Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2029-02-13

## Headline

- Probability: 23% (liquidity-weighted across 6 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $4K

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City | 6¢ | — | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-kansas-city-win-the-2027-pro-football-champio-kalshi-kxsb-27-kc |
| Kansas City | 34¢ | ±0 | $888 | kalshi | /markets/will-kansas-city-win-the-pro-football-afc-west-div-kalshi-kxnflafcwest-27-kc |
| Kansas City | 10¢ | −1pp | $438 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-be-tyreek-hills-next-team-kansas-city-kalshi-kxnextteamnfl-26thill-kc |
| Kansas City | 13¢ | — | $74 | kalshi | /markets/will-kansas-city-win-the-pro-football-afc-champion-kalshi-kxnflafcchamp-27-kc |
| Patrick Mahomes | 62¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-patrick-mahomes-be-starting-quarterback-for-k-kalshi-kxstartingqbweek1-w1-26sep15-kc-pmah |
| Justin Fields | 12¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-justin-fields-be-starting-quarterback-for-kan-kalshi-kxstartingqbweek1-w1-26sep15-kc-jfie |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-26 | 40 |
| 2026-06-11 | 45 |
| 2026-06-18 | 33 |
| 2026-06-25 | 18 |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-23 · Kansas City −16pp 31→15¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · Kansas City −14pp 40→26¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-19 · Kansas City +6pp 35→41¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · Kansas City +5pp 26→31¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · Patrick Mahomes +5pp 54→59¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 31% probability represents the market's assessment that Chicago Fire FC will defeat Sporting Kansas City in their upcoming match. The current level reflects Chicago's status as a moderate underdog, with Kansas City historically being the stronger team in head-to-head matchups. Key drivers of movement would be roster changes, recent team performance, injuries to key players, or home-field advantage considerations. The actual match result will definitively resolve this contract when the game concludes. Current probability may shift based on team news released in the days leading up to kickoff, as well as any changes to starting lineups or tactical adjustments announced by either club.

### Key factors

- Chicago Fire FC's win-loss record and goal differential in the current MLS season compared to Sporting Kansas City's record
- Injury status of key players for both teams, particularly attacking and defensive contributors
- Head-to-head historical performance between the two clubs in recent seasons
- Whether the match is played at Chicago's or Kansas City's home stadium
- Recent form and momentum of both teams in their last 5-10 matches prior to kickoff

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/chicago-fire-fc-vs-sporting-kansas-city-more-markets
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=chicago-fire-fc-vs-sporting-kansas-city-more-markets

## License

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