# Chicago Fire FC vs. Sporting Kansas City

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 26% across 6 contracts — refreshed 3 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/chicago-fire-fc-vs-sporting-kansas-city
Updated: 2026-08-10T07:20:51.892Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2029-02-13

## Headline

- Probability: 26% (liquidity-weighted across 6 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $5K

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City | 5¢ | — | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-kansas-city-win-the-2027-pro-football-champio-kalshi-kxsb-27-kc |
| Kansas City | 33¢ | ±0 | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-kansas-city-win-the-pro-football-afc-west-div-kalshi-kxnflafcwest-27-kc |
| Kansas City | 11¢ | +1pp | $427 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-be-tyreek-hills-next-team-kansas-city-kalshi-kxnextteamnfl-26thill-kc |
| Patrick Mahomes | 88¢ | −1pp | $87 | kalshi | /markets/will-patrick-mahomes-be-starting-quarterback-for-k-kalshi-kxstartingqbweek1-w1-26sep15-kc-pmah |
| Kansas City | 11¢ | −1pp | $78 | kalshi | /markets/will-kansas-city-win-the-pro-football-afc-champion-kalshi-kxnflafcchamp-27-kc |
| Justin Fields | 7¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-justin-fields-be-starting-quarterback-for-kan-kalshi-kxstartingqbweek1-w1-26sep15-kc-jfie |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | 46 |
| 2026-07-27 | 46 |
| 2026-08-03 | 37 |
| 2026-08-10 | 88 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-04 · Patrick Mahomes +7pp 82→89¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-06 · Kansas City −4pp 17→13¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-09 · Patrick Mahomes +4pp 85→89¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-08 · Kansas City +3pp 15→18¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 23% probability reflects the implied likelihood that Sporting Kansas City defeats Chicago Fire FC in an upcoming MLS regular season match. The current price is informed by Kansas City's recent form, roster composition, and home-field advantage if applicable. Key drivers of this probability include Kansas City's historical performance against Chicago, recent injury reports, and current league standings. The probability would shift materially based on confirmed lineups released before kickoff, as roster changes significantly impact team performance. The match itself will provide definitive resolution once played.

### Key factors

- Kansas City's recent form and goal differential compared to Chicago Fire FC's current season performance
- Chicago Fire FC's home or away status and historical results in that venue against Kansas City
- Confirmed starting lineups and availability of key players, particularly Kansas City's attacking personnel
- Weather conditions and surface quality on match day if outdoor factors materially affect play style
- Kansas City's recent injury list and roster changes in the 7-10 days preceding the match

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/chicago-fire-fc-vs-sporting-kansas-city
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=chicago-fire-fc-vs-sporting-kansas-city

## License

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