# Chicago Stars FC vs. NJ/NY Gotham FC

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 43% across 14 contracts — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/chicago-stars-fc-vs-njny-gotham-fc
Updated: 2026-05-03T16:51:02.254Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-03

## Headline

- Probability: 43% (liquidity-weighted across 14 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (14 contracts)
- 24h volume: $3K

## Bound contracts (14)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LOUD | 42¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-loud-win-the-vivo-keyd-stars-vs-loud-league-o-kalshi-kxlolgame-26may031500vkslll-lll |
| Vivo Keyd Stars | 57¢ | +1pp | $687 | kalshi | /markets/will-vivo-keyd-stars-win-the-vivo-keyd-stars-vs-lo-kalshi-kxlolgame-26may031500vkslll-vks |
| LOUD | 43¢ | +9pp | $286 | kalshi | /markets/will-loud-win-map-2-in-the-vivo-keyd-stars-vs-loud-kalshi-kxlolmap-26may031500vkslll-2-lll |
| 7REX | 28¢ | ±0 | $23 | kalshi | /markets/will-7rex-win-the-vivo-keyd-stars-academy-vs-7rex-kalshi-kxlolgame-26may041900vksa7re-7re |
| 7REX | 33¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-7rex-win-map-2-in-the-vivo-keyd-stars-academy-kalshi-kxlolmap-26may041900vksa7re-2-7re |
| Vivo Keyd Stars Academy | 58¢ | +14pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-vivo-keyd-stars-academy-win-map-1-in-the-vivo-kalshi-kxlolmap-26may041900vksa7re-1-vksa |
| Vivo Keyd Stars Academy | 60¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-vivo-keyd-stars-academy-win-the-vivo-keyd-sta-kalshi-kxlolgame-26may041900vksa7re-vksa |
| Over 2.5 maps | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-over-25-maps-be-played-in-the-vivo-keyd-stars-kalshi-kxloltotalmaps-26may041900vksa7re-3 |
| Over 2.5 maps | 45¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-over-25-maps-be-played-in-the-vivo-keyd-stars-kalshi-kxloltotalmaps-26may031500vkslll-3 |
| Vivo Keyd Stars | 52¢ | +43pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-vivo-keyd-stars-win-map-2-in-the-vivo-keyd-st-kalshi-kxlolmap-26may031500vkslll-2-vks |
| Vivo Keyd Stars Academy | 58¢ | +23pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-vivo-keyd-stars-academy-win-map-2-in-the-vivo-kalshi-kxlolmap-26may041900vksa7re-2-vksa |
| LOUD | 43¢ | −5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-loud-win-map-1-in-the-vivo-keyd-stars-vs-loud-kalshi-kxlolmap-26may031500vkslll-1-lll |
| 7REX | 33¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-7rex-win-map-1-in-the-vivo-keyd-stars-academy-kalshi-kxlolmap-26may041900vksa7re-1-7re |
| Vivo Keyd Stars | 52¢ | +7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-vivo-keyd-stars-win-map-1-in-the-vivo-keyd-st-kalshi-kxlolmap-26may031500vkslll-1-vks |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 38 |
| 2026-05-01 | 32 |
| 2026-05-02 | 33 |
| 2026-05-03 | 40 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Vivo Keyd Stars +43pp 12→55¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · Vivo Keyd Stars −32pp 44→12¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Vivo Keyd Stars Academy +23pp 29→52¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Vivo Keyd Stars Academy −22pp 52→30¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Vivo Keyd Stars Academy −18pp 47→29¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The 40% probability reflects market expectation that Chicago Stars FC will win this match against NJ/NY Gotham FC. Pricing differs notably between venues, with Kalshi contracts averaging 45% versus Polymarket at 39%, suggesting either different trader demographics or interpretation of available information. Factors influencing this level include recent team form, head-to-head records, and injury status. The match result will resolve this uncertainty on its scheduled date. Current trading volume concentrates on the moneyline, while secondary markets for over/under goals and both teams scoring show minimal activity, indicating less certainty around game structure versus outcome.

### Key factors

- Chicago Stars quoted at 14¢ on Polymarket's primary contract represents approximately 14% implied probability, creating a 26-percentage-point gap from the 40% aggregated average
- Six percentage point divergence between Kalshi (45%) and Polymarket (39%) suggests potential information asymmetry or different market participant composition between venues
- 24-hour volume concentration on moneyline contracts ($118-$122) versus near-zero volume on O/U 3.5 and both-teams-to-score derivatives indicates confidence consensus on winner rather than match structure
- Historical win rates, goal differential, and defensive rankings of both clubs in the current season would drive substantial repricing if recent performance has shifted
- Injury status of key attacking or defensive players, confirmed closer to match date, typically moves moneyline probabilities 3-8 percentage points depending on player importance

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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