# Chicago Stars FC vs. Portland Thorns FC - More Markets

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 39% across 16 contracts — refreshed 9 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/chicago-stars-fc-vs-portland-thorns-fc-more-markets
Updated: 2026-05-03T16:05:46.559Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-17

## Headline

- Probability: 39% (liquidity-weighted across 16 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 36% / Polymarket 41% — 5pp spread
- 24h volume: $6K

## Bound contracts (16)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LOUD | 42¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-loud-win-the-vivo-keyd-stars-vs-loud-league-o-kalshi-kxlolgame-26may031500vkslll-lll |
| Portland Thorns | 61¢ | +5pp | $898 | kalshi | /markets/chicago-vs-portland-thorns-winner-portland-thorns-kalshi-kxnwslgame-26may03chipth-pth |
| Vivo Keyd Stars | 57¢ | +1pp | $685 | kalshi | /markets/will-vivo-keyd-stars-win-the-vivo-keyd-stars-vs-lo-kalshi-kxlolgame-26may031500vkslll-vks |
| NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix; labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50%; CPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) YoY falls below 0% in any monthly release during before July 2028 be above 2?: Yes | 23¢ | −1pp | $670 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-number-of-unemployment-rate-exceeds-10-mo-kalshi-kxcitrini-28jul01 |
| Viborg FF (-2.5) | 3¢ | −3pp | $317 | polymarket | /markets/fc-midtjylland-vs-viborg-ff-more-markets-viborg-ff-polymarket-0x712d796588599cd8efe54febba9b05ff901c1f2b40228c893a3c3a6ef68337f9 |
| Liaoning Tieren FC (-2.5) | 3¢ | −6pp | $306 | polymarket | /markets/liaoning-tieren-fc-vs-chengdu-rongcheng-fc-more-ma-polymarket-0xeacd4b74856bcd1deffd3d1fa8f946524095752c552907e53b59734bfd8c9c9e |
| FK Bodø/Glimt (-2.5) | 32¢ | −1pp | $206 | polymarket | /markets/fk-bodglimt-vs-molde-fk-more-markets-fk-bodglimt-2-polymarket-0x5283a21a15ec521f4337c8e4f501631b4d19582611acba8a1b641466f279dc97 |
| FK Bodø/Glimt (-1.5) | 53¢ | ±0 | $204 | polymarket | /markets/fk-bodglimt-vs-molde-fk-more-markets-fk-bodglimt-1-polymarket-0x879d113aeafd2b7a7162ce786d626c812b0279d9c74ee8e411c2981c6c0c150c |
| Chicago | 15¢ | +3pp | $200 | kalshi | /markets/chicago-vs-portland-thorns-winner-chicago-kalshi-kxnwslgame-26may03chipth-chi |
| Tie | 20¢ | +6pp | $95 | kalshi | /markets/chicago-vs-portland-thorns-winner-tie-kalshi-kxnwslgame-26may03chipth-tie |
| O/U 2.5 | 66¢ | +3pp | $51 | polymarket | /markets/shandong-taishan-fc-vs-shanghai-shenhua-fc-more-ma-polymarket-0x92fa6c618d32593fd64e01106ddf8102f987fe612e1762d2e78e0d9a38f99a3a |
| O/U 2.5 | 39¢ | −2pp | $50 | polymarket | /markets/bucheon-fc-1995-vs-jeju-sk-fc-more-markets-ou-25-polymarket-0x2226aaa7d772c031bca563f44f9b6bda8f4a893e723c20efeb17d0e4f434408f |
| O/U 3.5 | 24¢ | −1pp | $29 | polymarket | /markets/daejeon-hana-citizen-fc-vs-incheon-united-fc-more-polymarket-0x5d58f60bcef71fbea32cd17317002ed65fef80adb99080b2bf49aa94cf71ee3d |
| O/U 1.5 | 73¢ | ±0 | $25 | polymarket | /markets/gimcheon-sangmu-fc-vs-ulsan-hd-fc-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0x958037183bbbe9c19389945a89a0123d13bd75f0cbc4bf48a9c88a4f8669d5e6 |
| O/U 2.5 | 47¢ | −2pp | $25 | polymarket | /markets/gimcheon-sangmu-fc-vs-ulsan-hd-fc-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0xc2ca5022ecefa00d5fdb377dcf1eba34cb1973d86b75b22e40122dd29ca651b6 |
| O/U 1.5 | 67¢ | +2pp | $25 | polymarket | /markets/bucheon-fc-1995-vs-jeju-sk-fc-more-markets-ou-15-polymarket-0x283620f44f63b784999c890284494a4f7f00a4044e2b66cb40b0e031a003566c |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 25 |
| 2026-04-19 | 24 |
| 2026-04-27 | 24 |
| 2026-05-03 | 38 |

_19 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Portland Thorns +13pp 38→51¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · O/U 2.5 −12pp 53→41¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Liaoning Tieren FC (-2.5) −6pp 12→6¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Tie +6pp 15→21¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Portland Thorns +5pp 51→56¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects the market's assessment that Portland Thorns FC will defeat Chicago Stars FC, currently priced at 42 percent across prediction markets. The estimate rests on Portland's home-field advantage and recent competitive form, balanced against Chicago's capability as a regular-season competitor. Liquidity is concentrated on Kalshi's direct winner market ($385 in 24-hour volume), while Polymarket shows broader interest in ancillary soccer outcomes. The 9-percentage-point gap between venues suggests some disagreement about Portland's likelihood, possibly reflecting different trader bases or contract specifications. Resolution will occur when the match concludes, determining whether Portland wins, Chicago wins, or the result is a draw. Current positioning leaves room for movement based on team news, injury reports, or tactical shifts announced closer to kickoff.

### Key factors

- Kalshi's single contract prices Portland at 50 percent while Polymarket's 19 contracts average 41 percent, indicating structural disagreement between venues
- Chicago Stars FC's recent performance record and goal-differential trends versus Portland Thorns FC's current form and home-field historical win rate
- Match venue (Portland home-field advantage typically correlates with 3-5 percentage-point probability shifts in MLS outcomes)
- Team roster availability and injury status as of match week, particularly for starting forwards or defensive anchors
- The gap between direct winner odds (42 percent) and correlated market indicators like both-teams-to-score pricing (65 percent) suggests either defensive vulnerabilities or offensive capability concerns

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/chicago-stars-fc-vs-portland-thorns-fc-more-markets
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=chicago-stars-fc-vs-portland-thorns-fc-more-markets

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