# Chicago Stars FC vs. Portland Thorns FC

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 41% across 17 contracts — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/chicago-stars-fc-vs-portland-thorns-fc
Updated: 2026-05-03T14:50:22.244Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-18

## Headline

- Probability: 41% (liquidity-weighted across 17 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (17 contracts)
- 24h volume: $4K

## Bound contracts (17)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LOUD | 41¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-loud-win-the-vivo-keyd-stars-vs-loud-league-o-kalshi-kxlolgame-26may031500vkslll-lll |
| Portland Thorns | 59¢ | +5pp | $893 | kalshi | /markets/chicago-vs-portland-thorns-winner-portland-thorns-kalshi-kxnwslgame-26may03chipth-pth |
| Vivo Keyd Stars | 57¢ | +1pp | $642 | kalshi | /markets/will-vivo-keyd-stars-win-the-vivo-keyd-stars-vs-lo-kalshi-kxlolgame-26may031500vkslll-vks |
| LOUD | 41¢ | +9pp | $286 | kalshi | /markets/will-loud-win-map-2-in-the-vivo-keyd-stars-vs-loud-kalshi-kxlolmap-26may031500vkslll-2-lll |
| Chicago | 16¢ | +3pp | $192 | kalshi | /markets/chicago-vs-portland-thorns-winner-chicago-kalshi-kxnwslgame-26may03chipth-chi |
| Tie | 21¢ | +6pp | $83 | kalshi | /markets/chicago-vs-portland-thorns-winner-tie-kalshi-kxnwslgame-26may03chipth-tie |
| 7REX | 30¢ | ±0 | $23 | kalshi | /markets/will-7rex-win-the-vivo-keyd-stars-academy-vs-7rex-kalshi-kxlolgame-26may041900vksa7re-7re |
| Vivo Keyd Stars Academy | 56¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-vivo-keyd-stars-academy-win-the-vivo-keyd-sta-kalshi-kxlolgame-26may041900vksa7re-vksa |
| Vivo Keyd Stars Academy | 53¢ | +23pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-vivo-keyd-stars-academy-win-map-2-in-the-vivo-kalshi-kxlolmap-26may041900vksa7re-2-vksa |
| Over 2.5 maps | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-over-25-maps-be-played-in-the-vivo-keyd-stars-kalshi-kxloltotalmaps-26may041900vksa7re-3 |
| Over 2.5 maps | 45¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-over-25-maps-be-played-in-the-vivo-keyd-stars-kalshi-kxloltotalmaps-26may031500vkslll-3 |
| Vivo Keyd Stars | 53¢ | +43pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-vivo-keyd-stars-win-map-2-in-the-vivo-keyd-st-kalshi-kxlolmap-26may031500vkslll-2-vks |
| LOUD | 42¢ | −5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-loud-win-map-1-in-the-vivo-keyd-stars-vs-loud-kalshi-kxlolmap-26may031500vkslll-1-lll |
| Vivo Keyd Stars | 53¢ | +7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-vivo-keyd-stars-win-map-1-in-the-vivo-keyd-st-kalshi-kxlolmap-26may031500vkslll-1-vks |
| 7REX | 39¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-7rex-win-map-1-in-the-vivo-keyd-stars-academy-kalshi-kxlolmap-26may041900vksa7re-1-7re |
| 7REX | 39¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-7rex-win-map-2-in-the-vivo-keyd-stars-academy-kalshi-kxlolmap-26may041900vksa7re-2-7re |
| Vivo Keyd Stars Academy | 53¢ | +14pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-vivo-keyd-stars-academy-win-map-1-in-the-vivo-kalshi-kxlolmap-26may041900vksa7re-1-vksa |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 33 |
| 2026-05-01 | 32 |
| 2026-05-02 | 33 |
| 2026-05-03 | 38 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Vivo Keyd Stars +43pp 12→55¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · Vivo Keyd Stars −32pp 44→12¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Vivo Keyd Stars Academy +23pp 29→52¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Vivo Keyd Stars Academy −22pp 52→30¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Vivo Keyd Stars Academy −18pp 47→29¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 39% probability represents traders' estimate that Chicago Stars FC will defeat Portland Thorns FC in an upcoming match. The substantial 13-percentage-point gap between Polymarket (41%) and Kalshi (28%) suggests disagreement about Chicago's chances, likely reflecting different weightings of recent team performance, injury status, or home-field advantage. The match outcome will depend primarily on current roster availability, recent form and head-to-head dynamics, and venue conditions. Resolution occurs immediately following the match completion, making this a straightforward binary event with minimal ambiguity.

### Key factors

- Chicago's recent win-loss record and goal differential compared to Portland's current season performance
- Injury or roster availability status for key players on both teams as of match day
- Historical head-to-head results between these teams and home vs. away performance patterns
- The 13-percentage-point spread between venues suggests either systematic differences in trader bases or asymmetric information access between markets
- Home-field advantage location and any documented weather or field condition factors affecting play style

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/chicago-stars-fc-vs-portland-thorns-fc
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=chicago-stars-fc-vs-portland-thorns-fc

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