# Chile Primera

> Winner: Universidad de Chile leads at 48%, runner-up 48% across 16 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 6 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/chile-primera
Updated: 2026-05-03T17:20:53.113Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-20

## Headline

- Leader: Winner: Universidad de Chile at 48%
- Runner-up: Winner: Universidad Católica at 48%
- Outcomes: 16 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (16 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (16)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner: Universidad de Chile | 48¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/chile-primera-winner-universidad-de-chile-polymarket-0x290450ba514ae099f27d9c288ba8c336cae3381ed860c5cc576efc8da9386489 |
| Winner: Universidad Católica | 48¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/chile-primera-winner-universidad-catlica-polymarket-0x757f50a6fb17eaa273eb635177ad370457fab1988ecdce4cb3e4ca8b753d886d |
| Winner: Huachipato | 48¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/chile-primera-winner-huachipato-polymarket-0xc56627512e8e5d408d40625a21688889ebf606352f246dcc675dff7ab56dddf7 |
| Winner: Unión La Calera | 48¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/chile-primera-winner-unin-la-calera-polymarket-0x92aad796f3bb42faae297ec7fee1ba1adcb5777bf565c883c9e4f6cfe76dd0f2 |
| Winner: Deportes La Serena | 48¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/chile-primera-winner-deportes-la-serena-polymarket-0x79f869a76b40556a007b999a2acd864432184c55942764670cd382683aace721 |
| Winner: Audax Italiano | 48¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/chile-primera-winner-audax-italiano-polymarket-0x177640876d9ce8aaeb19deab12c6a5bcad4e46982ca9ffe433af872c0d39c9aa |
| Winner: O'Higgins | 48¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/chile-primera-winner-ohiggins-polymarket-0x71ddfd36b9390f22bef79863123369d2e5d70586508076f8b81d69116ff1c1f7 |
| Winner: Deportes Concepción | 48¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/chile-primera-winner-deportes-concepcin-polymarket-0x509df9ba47892d522d70a3ed469c376fee948beca32df294aab5cc053e1cffd4 |
| Winner: Colo-Colo | 48¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/chile-primera-winner-colo-colo-polymarket-0x419c112e9472b203a3b9637764f15b09a9b87930d547dec68a6854a2f738b054 |
| Winner: Palestino | 48¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/chile-primera-winner-palestino-polymarket-0x1eec4e556cc0813fd3108c1a271862821fb02c6796baead45c00018c0068408c |
| Winner: Cobresal | 48¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/chile-primera-winner-cobresal-polymarket-0x0c7123a02891b341a160768e50db050f119abc8a8a05e23f8dee87f4ac0cfa10 |
| Winner: Everton CD | 48¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/chile-primera-winner-everton-cd-polymarket-0xa06db55a0ccf4958cf28023a0cbfb2c7547b982fab25ad2775a5200b960a42d2 |
| Winner: Nublense | 48¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/chile-primera-winner-nublense-polymarket-0xe95956b56b73f13cb5d296563244659f9d4ec11a7d68e452b47f551b9558c495 |
| Winner: Deportes Limache | 48¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/chile-primera-winner-deportes-limache-polymarket-0x961791e9c6eff22eaf7e36ea9172b8796589baa110a42bb1f0d1cd72a3ece461 |
| Winner: Coquimbo | 48¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/chile-primera-winner-coquimbo-polymarket-0xb370a8125f1fa1adf8d116b7843266e5a67b9a5b70324ce8551538d3b7b5fcd9 |
| Winner: Universidad de Concepción | 48¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/chile-primera-winner-universidad-de-concepcin-polymarket-0xf697a678ffe9e99817332c4dd8af657ef1d82cb562ba728cc8a9a0aca1343e3c |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Winner: Universidad de Chile | Winner: Universidad Católica | Winner: Huachipato |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | 48 | 48 | 49 |
| 2026-04-26 | 47 | 47 | 48 |
| 2026-05-02 | 47 | 47 | 48 |
| 2026-05-03 | 48 | 48 | — |

_9 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Winner: Huachipato +3pp 45→48¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-30 · Winner: Deportes La Serena −3pp 48→45¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-01 · Winner: Colo-Colo −3pp 50→47¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-30 · Winner: Palestino −3pp 48→45¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-30 · Winner: Cobresal −3pp 48→45¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This represents the probability that Cobresal wins the Chile Primera championship. Currently, five different teams—Cobresal, Audax Italiano, Palestino, Universidad de Chile, and Colo-Colo—are each priced at approximately 48%, indicating substantial uncertainty about which team will ultimately claim the title. The pricing reflects competitive parity among these contenders, with no single team commanding a clear consensus advantage. Market participants appear to be weighing recent team performance, remaining fixture difficulty, and current league standings equally across the top challengers. The championship will be decided through the completion of the regular season and any subsequent playoff structure required by the league's format. Trading activity remains minimal, suggesting limited recent information flow or market interest driving new price discovery.

### Key factors

- Current points differential between the five 48%-priced teams and their distance from first place
- Strength of schedule for each contender over the remaining matches in the 2026 season
- Historical win rates and head-to-head records among Cobresal, Audax Italiano, Palestino, Universidad de Chile, and Colo-Colo
- Injury status and squad depth variations that could affect performance down the stretch
- League playoff format specifications—whether the title is determined solely by points or requires additional rounds

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/chile-primera
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=chile-primera

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.