# Will China imports YoY for April 2026 be above 24%

> Closed. Final outcome: Above 18%. Last odds frozen 15 d ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/chimports
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:44.677Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: china
Status: resolved

## Headline

- Leader: Above 2% at 96%
- Runner-up: Above 4% at 96%
- Outcomes: 13 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (13 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K
- Resolved: Above 18%

## Bound contracts (13)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 2% | 96¢ | — | $526 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-imports-yoy-for-april-2026-be-above-2-a-kalshi-kxchimports-26may08-t2 |
| Above 4% | 96¢ | — | $366 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-imports-yoy-for-april-2026-be-above-4-a-kalshi-kxchimports-26may08-t4 |
| Above 6% | 96¢ | — | $112 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-imports-yoy-for-april-2026-be-above-6-a-kalshi-kxchimports-26may08-t6 |
| Above 8% | 93¢ | — | $8 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-imports-yoy-for-april-2026-be-above-8-a-kalshi-kxchimports-26may08-t8 |
| Above 10% | 93¢ | — | $8 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-imports-yoy-for-april-2026-be-above-10-kalshi-kxchimports-26may08-t10 |
| Above 16% | 60¢ | — | $206 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-imports-yoy-for-april-2026-be-above-16-kalshi-kxchimports-26may08-t16 |
| Above 14% | 16¢ | −9pp | $390 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-imports-yoy-for-april-2026-be-above-14-kalshi-kxchimports-26may08-t14 |
| Above 20% | 10¢ | −31pp | $16 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-imports-yoy-for-april-2026-be-above-20-kalshi-kxchimports-26may08-t20 |
| Above 22% | 7¢ | −36pp | $14 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-imports-yoy-for-april-2026-be-above-22-kalshi-kxchimports-26may08-t22 |
| Above 28% | 4¢ | — | $6 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-imports-yoy-for-april-2026-be-above-28-kalshi-kxchimports-26may08-t28 |
| Above 26% | 4¢ | −9pp | $4 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-imports-yoy-for-april-2026-be-above-26-kalshi-kxchimports-26may08-t26 |
| Above 12% | 3¢ | −6pp | $140 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-imports-yoy-for-april-2026-be-above-12-kalshi-kxchimports-26may08-t12 |
| Above 18% | 3¢ | −5pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-imports-yoy-for-april-2026-be-above-18-kalshi-kxchimports-26may08-t18 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 2% | Above 4% | Above 6% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-08 | 39 | 26 | 29 |

_1 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

The market currently assigns a 96% probability that China's year-over-year import growth for April 2026 will exceed 2%, but only a 60% probability it exceeds 16%. This wide gap reflects uncertainty about the magnitude of import growth rather than whether imports will grow at all. China's imports are sensitive to global commodity prices, domestic manufacturing demand, and trade policy shifts. The key driver of the current pricing is recent macroeconomic data from China and trading partner economies, which typically shows import growth moderating or accelerating based on industrial production and infrastructure investment. The April 2026 customs data release—scheduled for early May—will resolve this question by providing actual year-over-year import figures, allowing traders to assess whether growth landed in the 2-14% range (most uncertain area) or exceeded expectations.

### Key factors

- The probability gradient across outcomes (96% above 2% but only 3% above 12%) indicates traders view April growth as likely positive but not explosive, centered in the single-digit to mid-teens range
- Trading volume concentrates in the 2% threshold contract ($526 24h vol), suggesting this is the primary point of disagreement between bulls and bears
- China's import growth is mechanically tied to global commodity cycles and domestic fixed-asset investment rates, both observable and predictable from leading indicators
- The 14% and 16% thresholds show minimal probability (<20%), indicating market consensus against strong double-digit growth
- April 2026 customs data becomes public in early May and definitively resolves all outcomes simultaneously

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/chimports
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=chimports
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/china

## License

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